Queen of the South
vs
Dunfermline
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dunfermline
0 – 1 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.10 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Queen of the South vs Dunfermline overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
| Probability | Queen of the South | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.3% | 34.4% | 43.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.3% | 34.4% | 43.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Dunfermline
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.10 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Queen of the South vs Dunfermline match preview
In the upcoming FA Cup match, Queen of the South faces Dunfermline with probabilities indicating a 22% chance for Queen of the South to win, a 34% chance of a draw, and a 43% likelihood for Dunfermline to secure victory. The most probable scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 17%. Expected goals for Queen of the South stand at 0.71, while Dunfermline is forecasted to achieve 1.10.
Recent form shows Queen of the South with two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Dunfermline has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same period. In their last encounter, Dunfermline emerged victorious, with Queen of the South having no wins or draws against them historically. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Queen of the South and Dunfermline expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.81
Queen of the South and Dunfermline attack and defence ratings
Queen of the South
Dunfermline
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
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- Montrose v Hamilton Academical — match page
- Annan Athletic vs Morton — team news & stats
- Elgin City vs Partick
- Peterhead v Edinburgh City — match page
- Queen's Park vs Spartans — team news & stats
- Stenhousemuir vs East Fife
Before and after this match
Queen of the South vs Dunfermline markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Queen of the South | 22.3% |
| Draw | 34.4% | |
| Dunfermline | 43.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.2% |
| No | 64.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 56.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.6% |
| 0-1 | 16.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
Queen of the South vs Dunfermline stats
Queen of the South and Dunfermline recent form
| Queen of the South |
DDLLW |
| Dunfermline |
DWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.
Queen of the South vs Dunfermline head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Dunfermline | Queen of the South | Scotland FA Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.