Dunfermline
vs
Morton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dunfermline
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Dunfermline vs Morton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dunfermline vs Morton
| Probability | Dunfermline | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.0% | 23.6% | 13.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.0% | 23.6% | 13.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Dunfermline
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.76.
Dunfermline vs Morton match preview
Dunfermline enters this matchup against Morton with a strong probability of winning at 63%, while Morton stands at 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0 in favor of Dunfermline, occurring with a 13% probability. Expected goals suggest Dunfermline will generate 1.88, compared to Morton's 0.76, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Dunfermline has recorded a series of results with two draws and three wins in their last six matches. In contrast, Morton has experienced a mix of success and setbacks, winning four of their last six but losing the last two. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Dunfermline has secured 5 wins, while Morton has 3 wins and 2 draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dunfermline and Morton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Dunfermline and Morton attack and defence ratings
Dunfermline
Morton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dunfermline vs Morton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.6% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win | 38.4% | 2.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 63.0% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Morton | 13.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win | 38.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
Dunfermline vs Morton stats
Dunfermline and Morton recent form
| Dunfermline |
DWWWDD |
| Morton |
WWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dunfermline and Morton season so far
Dunfermline record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Morton record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Dunfermline vs Morton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Morton | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Dunfermline | Morton | Scotland Championship | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Morton | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Dunfermline | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Morton | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-02 | Morton | Dunfermline | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Dunfermline | Morton | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-21 | Morton | Dunfermline | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Dunfermline | Morton | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-23 | Morton | Dunfermline | Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.