Arbroath
vs
Stenhousemuir
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arbroath
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir
| Probability | Arbroath | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.0% | 29.0% | 35.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.0% | 29.0% | 35.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Arbroath
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir match preview
Arbroath and Stenhousemuir are set to clash in the Scotland Championship, with Arbroath holding a slight edge in the 1X2 probabilities at 36% compared to Stenhousemuir's 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 9% probability. Both teams have struggled recently, with Arbroath's form showing one win in their last six matches, while Stenhousemuir has not won in their last five, recording four losses and one draw.
Expected goals are closely matched, with Arbroath at 1.30 and Stenhousemuir at 1.29. The model indicates a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood that both teams will score. Historically, in their last nine encounters, Arbroath has won five times, while Stenhousemuir has claimed four victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arbroath and Stenhousemuir expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Arbroath and Stenhousemuir attack and defence ratings
Arbroath
Stenhousemuir
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 36.0% | 2.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 36.0% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Stenhousemuir | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arbroath win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir stats
Arbroath and Stenhousemuir recent form
| Arbroath |
WLLLLL |
| Stenhousemuir |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arbroath and Stenhousemuir season so far
Arbroath record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 13 matches.
Stenhousemuir record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | League One | 4-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | League One | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | League One | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-03 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | League One | 2-1 |
| 2019-03-09 | Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | League One | 0-2 |
| 2019-01-12 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | League One | 1-4 |
| 2018-12-01 | Arbroath | Stenhousemuir | League One | 5-2 |
| 2018-09-22 | Stenhousemuir | Arbroath | League One | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.