Cumnock Juniors
vs
Arbroath
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cumnock Juniors
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.78.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath
| Probability | Cumnock Juniors | Draw | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.9% | 18.9% | 10.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 70.9% | 18.9% | 10.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cumnock Juniors
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath match preview
Cumnock Juniors enter the match against Arbroath with a strong probability of winning at 71%, bolstered by their recent form of three wins in their last six matches. The model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.31 for Cumnock Juniors compared to Arbroath's 0.78. Additionally, there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring is estimated at 50%.
In contrast, Arbroath has struggled recently, with six consecutive matches yielding only one win in their last six outings. This poor form may contribute to their lower winning probability of 10%. As the teams prepare for this FA Cup clash, Cumnock Juniors will look to capitalize on their home advantage and recent success.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cumnock Juniors and Arbroath expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Cumnock Juniors and Arbroath attack and defence ratings
Cumnock Juniors
Arbroath
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Ross County v Brora Rangers — match page
- Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers — team news & stats
- Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
- Montrose v Hamilton Academical — match page
- Annan Athletic vs Morton — team news & stats
- Elgin City vs Partick
- Peterhead v Edinburgh City — match page
- Queen's Park vs Spartans — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cumnock Juniors | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.9% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cumnock Juniors win | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cumnock Juniors | 70.9% |
| Draw | 18.9% | |
| Arbroath | 10.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cumnock Juniors win | 48.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 29.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Cumnock Juniors vs Arbroath stats
Cumnock Juniors and Arbroath recent form
| Cumnock Juniors |
WWLWLW |
| Arbroath |
WLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.