Montrose
vs
Hamilton Academical
Garuda Lions Prediction: Montrose
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.40.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Montrose vs Hamilton Academical
| Probability | Montrose | Draw | Hamilton Academical |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.1% | 21.9% | 22.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 55.1% | 21.9% | 22.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Montrose
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.40.
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical match preview
Montrose will host Hamilton Academical in the Scotland FA Cup, with a predicted probability of 55% for a Montrose victory, while Hamilton Academical stands at 23%. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Montrose, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 2.21 for Montrose compared to 1.40 for Hamilton Academical.
In terms of recent form, Montrose has recorded a mixed set of results with a sequence of L-W-L-W, while Hamilton Academical has shown slightly better form with L-L-W-W. The model indicates a high likelihood of goals, with a 70% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance for both teams to score, suggesting an engaging matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Montrose and Hamilton Academical expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Montrose and Hamilton Academical attack and defence ratings
Montrose
Hamilton Academical
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Ross County v Brora Rangers — match page
- Inverness CT vs Cove Rangers — team news & stats
- Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
- Annan Athletic vs Morton — team news & stats
- Elgin City vs Partick
- Peterhead v Edinburgh City — match page
- Queen's Park vs Spartans — team news & stats
- Stenhousemuir vs East Fife
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montrose | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montrose | 55.1% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Hamilton Academical | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% |
| No | 32.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Montrose win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 44.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
Montrose vs Hamilton Academical stats
Montrose and Hamilton Academical recent form
| Montrose |
LWLW |
| Hamilton Academical |
LLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.