Inverness CT
vs
Stenhousemuir
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inverness CT
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir
| Probability | Inverness CT | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.3% | 32.3% | 48.3% |
| Market | 46.1% | 28.4% | 25.5% |
| Final | 39.4% | 29.4% | 31.2% |
| Edge | -26.8% | +4.0% | +22.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir match preview
Inverness CT faces Stenhousemuir in the Scotland Championship with Inverness CT holding a 44% probability of winning, while both a draw and a Stenhousemuir victory are at 28%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Inverness CT, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals suggest a tighter contest, with Inverness CT at 0.69 and Stenhousemuir at 1.24.
Recent form shows Inverness CT with a mixed record of W-D-W-L-L-D, while Stenhousemuir is on a strong run, winning their last six matches. In their last ten encounters, each team has won three times, with four matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.93
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir attack and defence ratings
Inverness CT
Stenhousemuir
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inverness CT | 39.4% | 2.54 | -26.8% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inverness CT | 39.4% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Stenhousemuir | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.5% |
| No | 63.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inverness CT win | 5.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.7% | |
| Loss | 80.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.8% |
| 0-0 | 15.8% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir stats
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir recent form
| Inverness CT |
WDWLLD |
| Stenhousemuir |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir season so far
Inverness CT record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stenhousemuir record
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Stenhousemuir | Inverness CT | Scotland Championship | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Stenhousemuir | Inverness CT | League One | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Inverness CT | Stenhousemuir | League One | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-27 | Inverness CT | Stenhousemuir | Challenge Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Stenhousemuir | Inverness CT | League One | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Inverness CT | Stenhousemuir | League One | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-19 | Stenhousemuir | Inverness CT | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-11 | Inverness CT | Stenhousemuir | League One | 4-1 |
| 2024-12-21 | Stenhousemuir | Inverness CT | League One | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Inverness CT | Stenhousemuir | League One | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 28.4%, away 25.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.22 | 3.71 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.40 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.22 | 3.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.42 | 3.62 |
| SBO | 1.66 | 3.14 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .