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Scotland Championship · Full time ·Matchday 10

Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir

2 – 0 Full time

26′A. Mackinnon
35′C. MacLeod
39′L. Grant
43′R. Meechan
61′A. Stewart
65′G. StevensonH. Kargbo
66′L. GrantE. O'Reilly
68′K. Smith
71′A. StewartR. MacGregor
71′L. SoleR. Duncan
73′M. Anderson
74′A. ShinnieL. Hodgkiss
79′L. StewartA. Bavidge
79′K. BilhamD. Carrick
79′L. LloydM. Thomson
87′L. LongstaffD. E. Osong
89′H. Kargbo

Tulloch Caledonian Stadium, InvernessReferee: C. Steven

Inverness CT 41%
Draw 29%
Stenhousemuir 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityInverness CTDrawStenhousemuir
Model19.3%32.3%48.3%
Market48.3%27.6%24.0%
Final41.1%28.8%30.1%
Edge-7.3%+1.2%+6.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Inverness CT ↓ / Stenhousemuir → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 17% 11% 1 9% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 59%
3+ goals 30%
No goals 16%

Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir expected goals

Inverness CT 0.69
Stenhousemuir 1.24

Total expected goals: 1.93

Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir attack and defence ratings

Inverness CT

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Stenhousemuir

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.52 -48%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir: result vs prediction

Inverness CT 2 – 0 Stenhousemuir

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Scotland Championship

Before and after this match

Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Inverness CT 41.1% 2.43 -7.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69.7% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score No 63.5% 1.58 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.2% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 80.7% 1.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Inverness CT41.1%
Draw28.8%
Stenhousemuir30.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530.3%
Under 2.569.7%
Both teams to scoreYes36.5%
No63.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.9%
12 (either side)71.2%
X2 (draw or away)58.9%
Handicap -1Inverness CT win5.7%
Push (exactly one goal)13.7%
Loss80.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-116.8%
0-015.8%
1-113.6%

Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir stats

Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir recent form

newest first
Inverness CT WDWLLD
Stenhousemuir WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Inverness CT and Stenhousemuir going into this match

league record before kick-off

Inverness CT record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Stenhousemuir record

  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Inverness CT wins 4Draws 3Stenhousemuir wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-29StenhousemuirInverness CTScotland Championship3-1
2026-04-11StenhousemuirInverness CTLeague One1-1
2026-02-21Inverness CTStenhousemuirLeague One1-1
2026-01-27Inverness CTStenhousemuirChallenge Cup1-0
2025-12-20StenhousemuirInverness CTLeague One1-0
2025-08-16Inverness CTStenhousemuirLeague One1-2
2025-04-19StenhousemuirInverness CTLeague One1-1
2025-03-11Inverness CTStenhousemuirLeague One4-1
2024-12-21StenhousemuirInverness CTLeague One0-1
2024-09-28Inverness CTStenhousemuirLeague One0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.3%, draw 27.6%, away 24.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.84 3.28 3.88
Bet365 1.83 3.30 3.70
BetVictor 1.87 3.30 3.80
Betano 1.90 3.45 3.70
Betfair 1.91 3.40 3.90
Dafabet 1.92 3.50 3.80
Marathonbet 1.82 3.28 3.78
Pinnacle 1.96 3.56 3.83
SBO 1.78 3.14 3.73
William Hill 2.00 3.25 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.89 ▲ +0.14
X 3.30 ▼ -0.26
2 3.79 ▼ -0.51

13 snapshots recorded, from .