Morton
vs
Raith Rovers
1 – 2 Full time
| 16′ | J. Rowe | ||
| 26′ | P. Croker | ||
| 31′ | J. RobertsonD. Easton | ||
| 53′ | M. Garrity | ||
| 55′ | K. Turner | ||
| 57′ | S. BashirD. Borso | ||
| 67′ | G. Oakley | ||
| 71′ | A. LyallL. Vaughan | ||
| 71′ | K. TurnerK. Montagu | ||
| 71′ | J. LongridgeL. Murphy | ||
| 83′ | M. GarrityD. Black | ||
| 84′ | D. EastonL. Stevenson |
Morton vs Raith Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Morton vs Raith Rovers
| Probability | Morton | Draw | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.4% | 24.3% | 63.2% |
| Market | 16.7% | 24.1% | 59.2% |
| Final | 15.6% | 24.2% | 60.2% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +0.2% | +4.1% |
Why Raith Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Raith Rovers below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Morton and Raith Rovers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Morton and Raith Rovers attack and defence ratings
Morton
Raith Rovers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Morton vs Raith Rovers: result vs prediction
Morton 1 – 2 Raith Rovers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Morton vs Raith Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raith Rovers | 60.2% | 1.66 | +4.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.4% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win | 37.8% | 2.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 15.6% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Raith Rovers | 60.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.9% |
| No | 58.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 36.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-2 | 13.6% | |
| 1-1 | 11.3% |
Morton vs Raith Rovers stats
Morton and Raith Rovers recent form
| Morton |
LLLLDL |
| Raith Rovers |
LDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Morton and Raith Rovers going into this match
Morton record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Raith Rovers record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Morton vs Raith Rovers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Raith Rovers | Morton | Scotland Championship | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Morton | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Raith Rovers | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Morton | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Raith Rovers | Morton | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-25 | Morton | Raith Rovers | Championship | 3-3 |
| 2024-11-16 | Raith Rovers | Morton | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2024-10-05 | Morton | Raith Rovers | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-27 | Morton | Raith Rovers | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-27 | Raith Rovers | Morton | Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Morton vs Raith Rovers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.7%, draw 24.1%, away 59.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.65 | 4.26 | 1.57 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 3.80 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 3.70 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 5.30 | 3.80 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.57 |
| Marathonbet | 5.55 | 3.80 | 1.48 |
| Pinnacle | 5.76 | 4.16 | 1.56 |
| SBO | 4.79 | 3.44 | 1.55 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .