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Scotland Championship · Full time ·Matchday 3

Livingston vs Dunfermline

2 – 0 Full time

The Home of the Set Fare Arena, LivingstonReferee: K. Clancy

Livingston 47%
Draw 27%
Dunfermline 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Livingston vs Dunfermline overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Livingston vs Dunfermline

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLivingstonDrawDunfermline
Model32.2%32.5%35.3%
Market52.3%25.8%21.9%
Final47.3%27.5%25.3%
Edge-20.1%+6.7%+13.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Livingston

  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Livingston ↓ / Dunfermline → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 12% 1 11% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 35%
No goals 13%

Livingston and Dunfermline expected goals

Livingston 1.03
Dunfermline 1.09

Total expected goals: 2.12

Livingston and Dunfermline attack and defence ratings

Livingston

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Dunfermline

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Livingston vs Dunfermline: result vs prediction

Livingston 2 – 0 Dunfermline

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Scotland Championship

Before and after this match

Livingston vs Dunfermline markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Livingston 47.3% 2.12 -20.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.5% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score No 56.1% 1.78 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.8% 1.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Livingston47.3%
Draw27.5%
Dunfermline25.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.5%
Under 2.564.5%
Both teams to scoreYes43.9%
No56.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.7%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)52.7%
Handicap -1Livingston win12.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss67.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.8%
0-013.4%
0-111.8%

Livingston vs Dunfermline stats

Livingston and Dunfermline recent form

newest first
Livingston LWLDLD
Dunfermline DDLLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Livingston and Dunfermline going into this match

league record before kick-off

Livingston record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Dunfermline record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

Livingston vs Dunfermline head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Livingston vs Dunfermline odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.3%, draw 25.8%, away 21.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.71 3.55 4.50
1xBet 1.72 3.56 4.22
888Sport 1.75 3.50 4.00
Bet365 1.75 3.60 3.90
BetVictor 1.75 3.50 4.20
Betano 1.78 3.55 4.05
Betfair 1.75 3.70 4.33
Dafabet 1.79 3.65 4.30
Marathonbet 1.70 3.56 4.15
Pinnacle 1.78 3.85 4.32
SBO 1.71 3.16 3.74
Superbet 1.78 3.55 4.15
Unibet 1.73 3.35 4.35
William Hill 1.75 3.50 4.00

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.