Morton
vs
Arbroath
1 – 2 Full time
Morton vs Arbroath overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Morton vs Arbroath
| Probability | Morton | Draw | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.4% | 41.1% | 29.5% |
| Market | 26.8% | 28.9% | 44.3% |
| Final | 27.5% | 31.9% | 40.6% |
| Edge | +2.5% | +12.2% | -14.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Morton and Arbroath expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.38
Morton and Arbroath attack and defence ratings
Morton
Arbroath
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Morton vs Arbroath: result vs prediction
Morton 1 – 2 Arbroath
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Morton vs Arbroath markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 40.6% | 2.46 | -14.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 27.5% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Arbroath | 40.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 83.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26.0% |
| No | 74.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arbroath win | 8.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 70.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 26.4% |
| 0-1 | 16.2% | |
| 1-0 | 16.1% |
Morton vs Arbroath stats
Morton and Arbroath recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Morton and Arbroath going into this match
Morton record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
Arbroath record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Morton vs Arbroath head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Morton | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Arbroath | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Morton | Arbroath | Scotland Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Arbroath | Morton | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-20 | Arbroath | Morton | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-01-27 | Morton | Arbroath | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2023-12-09 | Arbroath | Morton | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-26 | Morton | Arbroath | Championship | 0-3 |
| 2023-03-17 | Arbroath | Morton | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Morton vs Arbroath odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.8%, draw 28.9%, away 44.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.18 |
| 1xBet | 3.47 | 3.16 | 2.02 |
| 888Sport | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.15 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.14 |
| Marathonbet | 3.40 | 3.16 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.63 | 3.40 | 2.08 |
| SBO | 3.02 | 2.90 | 2.03 |
| Superbet | 3.45 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Unibet | 3.15 | 3.10 | 2.15 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.05 |