Ayr Utd
vs
Morton
1 – 1 Full time
Ayr Utd vs Morton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ayr Utd vs Morton
| Probability | Ayr Utd | Draw | Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.2% | 31.0% | 24.7% |
| Market | 54.5% | 25.9% | 19.6% |
| Final | 51.9% | 27.2% | 20.9% |
| Edge | -10.2% | +5.1% | +5.2% |
Why Ayr Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ayr Utd and Morton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Ayr Utd and Morton attack and defence ratings
Ayr Utd
Morton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ayr Utd vs Morton: result vs prediction
Ayr Utd 1 – 1 Morton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ayr Utd vs Morton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 51.9% | 1.93 | -10.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 51.9% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Morton | 20.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.5% |
| No | 55.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 12.4% |
Ayr Utd vs Morton stats
Ayr Utd and Morton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ayr Utd and Morton going into this match
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Morton record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
Ayr Utd vs Morton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-08 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-28 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Scotland FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-08 | Morton | Ayr Utd | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-09 | Ayr Utd | Morton | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ayr Utd vs Morton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.5%, draw 25.9%, away 19.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.71 | 3.55 | 4.45 |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.50 | 4.73 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.55 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.50 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.65 | 4.85 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.26 | 4.32 |
| Superbet | 1.71 | 3.60 | 4.55 |
| Unibet | 1.65 | 3.45 | 4.70 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .