Garuda Lions
Today
Scotland Championship · Full time ·Matchday 4

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers

1 – 0 Full time

East End Park, DunfermlineReferee: D. Nicolson

Dunfermline 34%
Draw 29%
Raith Rovers 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDunfermlineDrawRaith Rovers
Model24.8%31.8%43.3%
Market36.9%27.6%35.5%
Final33.9%28.6%37.5%
Edge-12.1%+4.3%+7.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Raith Rovers

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.87.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Raith Rovers below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dunfermline ↓ / Raith Rovers → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 14% 9% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 35%
No goals 13%

Dunfermline and Raith Rovers expected goals

Dunfermline 0.87
Raith Rovers 1.24

Total expected goals: 2.11

Dunfermline and Raith Rovers attack and defence ratings

Dunfermline

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Raith Rovers

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers: result vs prediction

Dunfermline 1 – 0 Raith Rovers

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Scotland Championship

Before and after this match

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Raith Rovers 37.5% 2.67 +7.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.8% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score No 57.4% 1.74 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.7% 1.76 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dunfermline33.9%
Draw28.6%
Raith Rovers37.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.2%
Under 2.564.8%
Both teams to scoreYes42.6%
No57.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.5%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)66.1%
Handicap -1Raith Rovers win19.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss56.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
0-113.7%
0-013.5%

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers stats

Dunfermline and Raith Rovers recent form

newest first
Dunfermline LDDLLD
Raith Rovers WWDWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dunfermline and Raith Rovers going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dunfermline record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

Raith Rovers record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Dunfermline wins 0Draws 5Raith Rovers wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-14DunfermlineRaith RoversScotland Championship3-0
2025-12-27Raith RoversDunfermlineScotland Championship1-2
2025-10-17DunfermlineRaith RoversScotland Championship2-0
2025-08-22Raith RoversDunfermlineScotland Championship2-0
2025-03-14Raith RoversDunfermlineChampionship2-0
2025-02-01DunfermlineRaith RoversChampionship3-1
2024-12-14Raith RoversDunfermlineChampionship2-0
2024-09-13DunfermlineRaith RoversChampionship2-0
2024-03-09Raith RoversDunfermlineChampionship2-0
2024-01-02DunfermlineRaith RoversChampionship1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dunfermline vs Raith Rovers odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.9%, draw 27.6%, away 35.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.45 3.35 2.62
1xBet 2.41 3.36 2.51
Bet365 2.50 3.20 2.55
BetVictor 2.50 3.20 2.60
Betano 2.50 3.30 2.60
Betfair 2.50 3.40 2.70
Dafabet 2.50 3.40 2.65
Marathonbet 2.41 3.36 2.51
Pinnacle 2.52 3.60 2.56
SBO 2.31 2.92 2.54
Superbet 2.50 3.35 2.62
Unibet 2.40 3.35 2.55
William Hill 2.50 3.20 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▼ -0.20
X 3.35 ▲ +0.17
2 2.60 ▲ +0.17

12 snapshots recorded, from .