Raith Rovers
vs
Ayr Utd
2 – 0 Full time
Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd
| Probability | Raith Rovers | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.7% | 26.9% | 19.4% |
| Market | 47.4% | 27.8% | 24.7% |
| Final | 49.0% | 27.6% | 23.4% |
| Edge | +6.2% | -0.9% | -5.3% |
Why Raith Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Raith Rovers below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Raith Rovers and Ayr Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Raith Rovers and Ayr Utd attack and defence ratings
Raith Rovers
Ayr Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd: result vs prediction
Raith Rovers 2 – 0 Ayr Utd
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raith Rovers | 49.0% | 2.04 | +6.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raith Rovers | 49.0% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Ayr Utd | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | |
| 2-0 | 10.6% |
Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd stats
Raith Rovers and Ayr Utd recent form
| Raith Rovers |
WDWLLW |
| Ayr Utd |
DWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Raith Rovers and Ayr Utd going into this match
Raith Rovers record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Ayr Utd record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Raith Rovers | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Ayr Utd | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Raith Rovers | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Ayr Utd | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Raith Rovers vs Ayr Utd odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 27.8%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.94 | 3.30 | 3.65 |
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.32 | 3.79 |
| 888Sport | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.35 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.85 | 3.32 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.47 | 4.04 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 2.86 | 3.10 |
| Superbet | 1.97 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Unibet | 1.82 | 3.30 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.60 |