Gwangju FC
vs
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gimcheon Sangmu FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
| Probability | Gwangju FC | Draw | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.7% | 26.0% | 34.3% |
| Market | 29.9% | 26.7% | 43.4% |
| Final | 32.3% | 26.6% | 41.1% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -0.2% | -2.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (our 41.1% × 2.22 − 1).
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC match preview
Gwangju FC faces Gimcheon Sangmu FC in a K League 1 matchup with Gwangju FC holding a 31% probability of winning, while Gimcheon Sangmu FC is favored at 42%. The expected goals indicate a close contest, with Gwangju FC projected at 1.61 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 1.48. Recent form shows Gwangju FC with two wins and four draws in their last six matches, while Gimcheon Sangmu FC has one win and five draws in the same span.
The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Gimcheon Sangmu FC, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last ten encounters, Gwangju FC has secured two wins, while Gimcheon Sangmu FC has three victories and five matches ended in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack and defence ratings
Gwangju FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 41.1% | 2.43 | -2.3% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gwangju FC | 32.3% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 41.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 65.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC stats
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC recent form
| Gwangju FC |
WLWDDL |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
LDLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC season so far
Gwangju FC record
- They have won 3 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC record
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 2-2 |
| 2026-07-22 | Gwangju FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-22 | Gwangju FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Gwangju FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-06-15 | Gwangju FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-06 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2020-10-25 | Gwangju FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.9%, draw 26.7%, away 43.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.13 | 3.48 | 2.16 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.18 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.48 | 2.14 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.55 | 2.22 |
| SBO | 2.84 | 3.02 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .