Pohang Steelers
vs
Jeju United FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jeju United FC
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.08.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC
| Probability | Pohang Steelers | Draw | Jeju United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.9% | 28.2% | 45.9% |
| Market | 35.6% | 30.0% | 34.4% |
| Final | 33.2% | 29.5% | 37.3% |
| Edge | -2.4% | -0.4% | +2.9% |
Why Jeju United FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Jeju United FC below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.5% per unit staked (our 37.3% × 2.75 − 1).
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC match preview
Pohang Steelers will face Jeju United FC in a K League 1 match on November 1, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are 26% for a Pohang Steelers win, 28% for a draw, and 46% for a Jeju United FC victory. The expected goals are 1.08 for Pohang and 1.50 for Jeju. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
Recent form shows Pohang Steelers with a record of D-D-L-W-D-D, while Jeju United FC has L-L-L-W-D-W. In their last 10 encounters, both teams have recorded 4 wins each, alongside 2 draws. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 48%, and both teams to score stands at 53%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC attack and defence ratings
Pohang Steelers
Jeju United FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jeju United FC | 37.3% | 2.68 | +2.9% | 2.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pohang Steelers | 33.2% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Jeju United FC | 37.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% |
| No | 47.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jeju United FC win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC stats
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC recent form
| Pohang Steelers |
DDLWDD |
| Jeju United FC |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC season so far
Pohang Steelers record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jeju United FC record
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Jeju United FC | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Jeju United FC | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Pohang Steelers | Jeju United FC | K League 1 | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Pohang Steelers | Jeju United FC | K League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Pohang Steelers | Jeju United FC | K League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Jeju United FC | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-28 | Pohang Steelers | Jeju United FC | FA Cup | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-21 | Jeju United FC | Pohang Steelers | FA Cup | 2-2 |
| 2024-07-13 | Jeju United FC | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-12 | Pohang Steelers | Jeju United FC | K League 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 30.0%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.08 | 2.73 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.13 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.08 | 2.73 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.22 | 2.74 |
| SBO | 2.47 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .