Incheon United
vs
Jeju United FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Incheon United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC
| Probability | Incheon United | Draw | Jeju United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.5% | 30.3% | 31.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.5% | 30.3% | 31.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC match preview
Incheon United hosts Jeju United FC in a closely contested K League 1 match, with both teams having a 34% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which has a 12% likelihood, suggesting a tight encounter. The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.05, indicating a balanced offensive performance.
In terms of recent form, Incheon United has recorded a mixed bag with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Jeju United FC has shown more consistency with four wins and two draws. Historically, Incheon has had the upper hand in their last two meetings, securing one win and one draw against Jeju, who has yet to win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Incheon United and Jeju United FC attack and defence ratings
Incheon United
Jeju United FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Incheon United | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Incheon United | 38.5% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Jeju United FC | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Incheon United win | 17.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 61.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.5% | |
| 1-0 | 10.4% |
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC stats
Incheon United and Jeju United FC recent form
| Incheon United |
DWDDLW |
| Jeju United FC |
LLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Incheon United and Jeju United FC season so far
Incheon United record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jeju United FC record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Jeju United FC | Incheon United | K League 1 | 3-3 |
| 2026-04-25 | Incheon United | Jeju United FC | K League 1 | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.