Gimcheon Sangmu FC
vs
Daejeon Citizen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Daejeon Citizen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen
| Probability | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Draw | Daejeon Citizen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.5% | 25.4% | 47.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.5% | 25.4% | 47.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Daejeon Citizen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen match preview
Gimcheon Sangmu FC faces Daejeon Citizen in a K League 1 matchup, with the model assigning a 27% probability of a Gimcheon win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 45% likelihood that Daejeon will emerge victorious. The expected goals are 1.13 for Gimcheon and 1.53 for Daejeon, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
In terms of recent form, Gimcheon has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses, while Daejeon has achieved two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows Gimcheon with one win, two draws, and three losses against Daejeon in their last six meetings. The model indicates a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen attack and defence ratings
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Daejeon Citizen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Daejeon Citizen | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 27.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Daejeon Citizen | 47.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Daejeon Citizen win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 7.2% |
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen stats
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen recent form
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
DLWDDD |
| Daejeon Citizen |
WWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen season so far
Gimcheon Sangmu FC record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Daejeon Citizen record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 | 3-2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Daejeon Citizen | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 | 0-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Daejeon Citizen | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Daejeon Citizen | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.