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K League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 32

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC

3 – 2 Full time

3′John Iredale
28′John Iredale
29′Masatoshi IshidaDiogo Oliveira
31′Yu Je-Ho
45′Yu Je-HoRi Yong-jik
45′Um Won-SangSeo Jin-Su
61′Ha Seung-unMoon Min-Seo
61′Ri Yong-jik
73′John IredalePark Won-Jae
73′Min Sang-giAhn Young-Kyu
73′Lee Min-KiKim Jong-Suk
74′Seo Jin-Su
74′Kim Dong-Hwa
78′Diogo Oliveira
85′Joo Min-KyuJeong Jae-hee
90′Moon Min-Seo

Daejeon World Cup Stadium, DaejeonReferee: Kim Woo-sung

Daejeon Citizen 66%
Draw 19%
Gwangju FC 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 6
60 Possession % 40
9 Corners 3

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDaejeon CitizenDrawGwangju FC
Model64.3%18.0%17.6%
Market66.9%19.8%13.3%
Final66.3%19.4%14.4%
Edge-2.6%-1.7%+4.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Daejeon Citizen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 1.44.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Daejeon Citize ↓ / Gwangju FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 6% 8% 6% 3 5% 8% 5% 4+ 7% 10% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 79%
No goals 2%

Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC expected goals

Daejeon Citizen 2.75
Gwangju FC 1.44

Total expected goals: 4.19

Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC attack and defence ratings

Daejeon Citizen

Attack 1.50 +50%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Gwangju FC

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.42 +42%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC: result vs prediction

Daejeon Citizen 3 – 2 Gwangju FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

K League 1

Before and after this match

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Daejeon Citizen 66.3% 1.51 -2.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 78.9% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.1% 1.39 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.6% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Daejeon Citizen win 44.9% 2.23 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Daejeon Citizen66.3%
Draw19.4%
Gwangju FC14.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578.9%
Under 2.521.1%
Both teams to scoreYes72.1%
No27.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.6%
12 (either side)80.6%
X2 (draw or away)33.7%
Handicap -1Daejeon Citizen win44.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss35.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.2%
3-17.5%
1-16.6%

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC stats

Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC recent form

newest first
Daejeon Citizen WDDWWL
Gwangju FC WDDLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Daejeon Citizen record

  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gwangju FC record

  • They have won 2 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Daejeon Citizen wins 3Draws 3Gwangju FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-02Daejeon CitizenGwangju FCK League 12-0
2026-05-02Gwangju FCDaejeon CitizenK League 10-5
2025-08-17Gwangju FCDaejeon CitizenK League 12-0
2025-06-22Gwangju FCDaejeon CitizenK League 12-2
2025-03-29Daejeon CitizenGwangju FCK League 11-1
2024-11-02Gwangju FCDaejeon CitizenK League 10-0
2024-09-01Daejeon CitizenGwangju FCK League 12-0
2024-06-22Daejeon CitizenGwangju FCK League 12-1
2024-05-06Gwangju FCDaejeon CitizenK League 12-1
2023-08-04Gwangju FCDaejeon CitizenK League 13-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 67.0%, draw 19.7%, away 13.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.40 4.70 7.00
Bet365 1.42 4.50 6.25
BetVictor 1.36 4.80 7.50
Betano 1.40 4.75 6.80
Betfair 1.33 5.00 7.50
Dafabet 1.44 5.00 6.80
Marathonbet 1.39 4.70 7.00
Pinnacle 1.39 5.19 7.44
SBO 1.34 4.25 6.18
William Hill 1.36 4.60 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.39 ▲ +0.02
X 4.70 ▼ -0.25
2 7.00 ▼ -0.18

12 snapshots recorded, from .