Gwangju FC
vs
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ulsan Hyundai FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
| Probability | Gwangju FC | Draw | Ulsan Hyundai FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.4% | 25.3% | 52.3% |
| Market | 20.8% | 23.2% | 56.0% |
| Final | 21.2% | 23.7% | 55.1% |
| Edge | +1.7% | +2.0% | -3.7% |
Why Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC match preview
Gwangju FC faces Ulsan Hyundai FC in a K League 1 matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model probabilities indicate a 22% chance for Gwangju FC to win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 53% chance for Ulsan Hyundai FC to secure victory. The expected goals suggest Gwangju FC will score 1.12, while Ulsan Hyundai FC is projected to score 1.82.
Recent form shows Gwangju FC struggling with a record of two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Ulsan Hyundai FC has achieved two wins, one draw, and three losses in the same timeframe. In their last six encounters, Gwangju FC has one win, two draws, and three losses against Ulsan Hyundai FC. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC attack and defence ratings
Gwangju FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 55.1% | 1.82 | -3.7% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gwangju FC | 21.2% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 55.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC win | 30.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 47.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.7% |
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC stats
Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC recent form
| Gwangju FC |
DDLDLD |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC |
LWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC season so far
Gwangju FC record
- They have won 1 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ulsan Hyundai FC record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Gwangju FC | Ulsan Hyundai FC | K League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 5-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Gwangju FC | Ulsan Hyundai FC | K League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-28 | Gwangju FC | Ulsan Hyundai FC | K League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-02 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | Gwangju FC | K League 1 | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.8%, draw 23.2%, away 56.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.40 | 4.10 | 1.67 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.40 | 3.95 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 4.20 | 1.71 |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 4.10 | 1.65 |
| Pinnacle | 4.68 | 4.16 | 1.67 |
| SBO | 4.02 | 3.61 | 1.60 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .