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K League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 31

Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

4 – 3 Full time

30′Yago Cariello Ribeiro
36′Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua
39′John Iredale
43′Kim Young-Gwon
45′Choi Seok-hyeonMiłosz Trojak
64′Ha Seung-unMoon Min-Seo
66′Shin Chang-moo
76′Choi Kyoung-RokJu Se-Jong
76′Min Sang-giPark Won-Jae
76′Kwon Sung-yunAhn Young-Kyu
77′Adriel D'Avila Ba Loua
78′Darijan BojanićLee Gyu-sung
83′Erick FariasLee Jin-Hyun
83′Jang Si-youngYoon Jong-Gyu
88′Lee Dong-gyeongLee Hui-gyun
89′Teun van GrunsvenRi Yong-jik
90′Kim Dong-Hwa
90′Yago Cariello Ribeiro

Gwangju Football Stadium, GwangjuReferee: Lee Dong-jun

Gwangju FC 21%
Draw 24%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 10
41 Possession % 59
2 Corners 1

Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGwangju FCDrawUlsan Hyundai FC
Model22.4%25.3%52.3%
Market20.7%23.0%56.3%
Final21.1%23.6%55.3%
Edge+0.4%+0.6%-1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Ulsan Hyundai FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gwangju FC ↓ / Ulsan Hyundai → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 9% 9% 1 12% 10% 2 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected goals

Gwangju FC 1.12
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.81

Total expected goals: 2.93

Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC attack and defence ratings

Gwangju FC

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Ulsan Hyundai FC

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC: result vs prediction

Gwangju FC 4 – 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

K League 1

Before and after this match

Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ulsan Hyundai FC 55.3% 1.81 -1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.1% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.5% 1.74 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.9% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.7% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gwangju FC21.1%
Draw23.6%
Ulsan Hyundai FC55.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%
Both teams to scoreYes57.5%
No42.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)44.7%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)78.9%
Handicap -1Ulsan Hyundai FC win30.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss47.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.9%
1-29.8%
0-28.7%

Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC stats

Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC recent form

newest first
Gwangju FC DDLDLD
Ulsan Hyundai FC LWWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Gwangju FC record

  • They have won 1 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ulsan Hyundai FC record

  • They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Gwangju FC wins 3Draws 5Ulsan Hyundai FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-05Gwangju FCUlsan Hyundai FCK League 11-1
2026-04-19Ulsan Hyundai FCGwangju FCK League 15-1
2025-11-22Gwangju FCUlsan Hyundai FCK League 12-0
2025-10-18Ulsan Hyundai FCGwangju FCK League 12-0
2025-07-02Gwangju FCUlsan Hyundai FCFA Cup1-0
2025-05-28Gwangju FCUlsan Hyundai FCK League 11-1
2025-05-02Ulsan Hyundai FCGwangju FCK League 13-0
2024-08-28Ulsan Hyundai FCGwangju FCFA Cup2-2
2024-08-25Gwangju FCUlsan Hyundai FCK League 10-1
2024-08-21Gwangju FCUlsan Hyundai FCFA Cup0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.7%, draw 23.0%, away 56.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.40 4.10 1.67
Bet365 4.33 4.00 1.62
BetVictor 4.75 4.10 1.62
Betano 4.55 4.00 1.67
Betfair 4.50 4.00 1.67
Dafabet 4.70 4.20 1.71
Marathonbet 4.45 4.10 1.65
Pinnacle 4.82 4.27 1.66
SBO 4.10 3.64 1.58
William Hill 4.50 3.90 1.65

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.50 ▲ +0.03
X 4.05 —
2 1.65 ▼ -0.02

12 snapshots recorded, from .