FC Seoul
vs
Incheon United
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Seoul
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Seoul is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Seoul vs Incheon United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Seoul vs Incheon United
| Probability | FC Seoul | Draw | Incheon United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 28.0% | 31.9% |
| Market | 52.8% | 25.6% | 21.6% |
| Final | 49.7% | 26.2% | 24.2% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +0.6% | +2.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.1% per unit staked (our 49.7% × 1.83 − 1).
FC Seoul vs Incheon United match preview
FC Seoul faces Incheon United in a K League 1 matchup with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, FC Seoul has a 40% probability of winning, while Incheon United stands at 32%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The expected goals are 1.45 for FC Seoul and 1.27 for Incheon United, indicating a closely contested match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of FC Seoul, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, FC Seoul has recorded two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Incheon United has managed two wins and four draws in the same span. Historically, FC Seoul has been dominant in their last ten encounters, winning six times compared to Incheon United's two victories and two draws. Both teams have a 56% chance of scoring, with over 2.5 goals expected at 51%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Seoul and Incheon United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
FC Seoul and Incheon United attack and defence ratings
FC Seoul
Incheon United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Seoul vs Incheon United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Seoul | 49.7% | 2.01 | -3.2% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Seoul | 49.7% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Incheon United | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% |
| No | 43.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Seoul win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
FC Seoul vs Incheon United stats
FC Seoul and Incheon United recent form
| FC Seoul |
DDWLWL |
| Incheon United |
WDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Seoul and Incheon United season so far
FC Seoul record
- They have won 20 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Incheon United record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Seoul vs Incheon United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | FC Seoul | Incheon United | K League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2026-07-05 | FC Seoul | Incheon United | K League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Incheon United | FC Seoul | K League 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-27 | Incheon United | FC Seoul | K League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-11 | Incheon United | FC Seoul | K League 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-10 | FC Seoul | Incheon United | K League 1 | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-22 | FC Seoul | Incheon United | K League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2023-06-07 | Incheon United | FC Seoul | K League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-25 | FC Seoul | Incheon United | K League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-27 | Incheon United | FC Seoul | K League 1 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Seoul vs Incheon United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 25.6%, away 21.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.65 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.88 | 4.33 |
| SBO | 1.77 | 3.24 | 3.66 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .