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K League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 29

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United

2 – 1 Full time

22′Sim Sang-MinJang Si-young
53′Jung Seung-Hyun
56′Lee Dong-gyeong
62′Leandro RibeiroMorgan Ferrier
62′Gerso FernandesLee Dong-ryul
73′Stefan Mugoša
75′Erick FariasLee Gyu-sung
75′Pedro Antonio Pimentel FerreiraKang Sang-Woo
86′Darijan BojanićYong-Woo Park
86′Lee Dong-gyeongMiłosz Trojak
87′Kim YeonsooJung Chi-In
87′Seo Jae-minKim Seong-Min

Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, UlsanReferee: Jong-Hyeok Kim, South Korea

Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%
Draw 29%
Incheon United 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 3
42 Possession % 58
6 Corners 9

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUlsan Hyundai FCDrawIncheon United
Model36.9%30.5%32.7%
Market42.0%28.2%29.8%
Final40.7%28.8%30.5%
Edge-5.1%+2.3%+2.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ulsan Hyundai ↓ / Incheon United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 9% 1 10% 14% 7% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 11%

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United expected goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.23
Incheon United 1.14

Total expected goals: 2.37

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United attack and defence ratings

Ulsan Hyundai FC

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Incheon United

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United: result vs prediction

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 – 1 Incheon United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

K League 1

Before and after this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ulsan Hyundai FC 40.7% 2.46 -5.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.8% 1.73 — —
Both teams to score No 50.6% 1.98 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.2% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.1% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ulsan Hyundai FC40.7%
Draw28.8%
Incheon United30.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%
Both teams to scoreYes49.4%
No50.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.5%
12 (either side)71.2%
X2 (draw or away)59.3%
Handicap -1Ulsan Hyundai FC win16.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss63.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
0-010.7%
1-010.2%

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United stats

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United recent form

newest first
Ulsan Hyundai FC WDWLLL
Incheon United WLDLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ulsan Hyundai FC record

  • They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Incheon United record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 51% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Ulsan Hyundai FC wins 4Draws 3Incheon United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-21Ulsan Hyundai FCIncheon UnitedK League 11-2
2026-04-11Incheon UnitedUlsan Hyundai FCK League 11-2
2025-05-14Ulsan Hyundai FCIncheon UnitedFA Cup3-0
2024-09-22Incheon UnitedUlsan Hyundai FCK League 10-0
2024-07-17Ulsan Hyundai FCIncheon UnitedFA Cup1-0
2024-05-29Incheon UnitedUlsan Hyundai FCK League 11-1
2024-03-17Ulsan Hyundai FCIncheon UnitedK League 13-3
2023-11-24Incheon UnitedUlsan Hyundai FCK League 13-1
2023-10-08Ulsan Hyundai FCIncheon UnitedK League 10-0
2023-07-12Ulsan Hyundai FCIncheon UnitedK League 11-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 28.3%, away 29.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.25 3.30 3.10
1xBet 2.25 3.30 3.13
888Sport 2.20 3.10 3.10
Bet365 2.15 3.20 3.20
BetVictor 2.20 3.40 3.10
Betano 2.30 3.20 3.10
Betfair 2.20 3.40 3.00
Dafabet 2.30 3.35 3.25
Marathonbet 2.23 3.30 3.12
Pinnacle 2.25 3.49 3.25
SBO 2.15 3.06 2.78
Superbet 2.25 3.25 3.10
Unibet 2.18 3.15 2.85
William Hill 2.20 3.20 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.21 ▼ -0.04
X 3.30 —
2 3.12 ▲ +0.04

6 snapshots recorded, from .