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K League 1 · Full time ·Matchday 30

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen

1 – 1 Full time

32′Anton Krivotsyuk
35′Morgan Ferrier
42′Kang Yun-sung
45′Gustav LudwigsonSeo Jin-Su
60′Masatoshi IshidaKim Jun-Beom
60′Jeong Jae-heeUm Won-Sang
67′Morgan FerrierGerso Fernandes
78′Joo Min-KyuDiogo Oliveira
83′Kim Myung-soonChoi Seung-gu
83′Leandro RibeiroJung Chi-In
84′Lee Myung-JooLee Min-hyuk
89′Victor BobsinLee Hyeon-sik
90′Kang Yun-sung

Incheon Football Stadium, IncheonReferee: Choi Hyun-jai

Incheon United 32%
Draw 27%
Daejeon Citizen 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 4
50 Possession % 50
1 Corners 3

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIncheon UnitedDrawDaejeon Citizen
Model28.5%24.6%46.9%
Market33.0%28.5%38.5%
Final31.9%27.5%40.6%
Edge-4.5%-3.8%+8.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Daejeon Citizen

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.41.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Daejeon Citizen below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Incheon United ↓ / Daejeon Citize → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen expected goals

Incheon United 1.41
Daejeon Citizen 1.85

Total expected goals: 3.26

Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen attack and defence ratings

Incheon United

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Daejeon Citizen

Attack 1.58 +58%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen: result vs prediction

Incheon United 1 – 1 Daejeon Citizen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

K League 1

Before and after this match

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Daejeon Citizen 40.6% 2.46 +8.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.2% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.7% 1.55 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.5% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.1% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Incheon United31.9%
Draw27.5%
Daejeon Citizen40.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%
Both teams to scoreYes64.7%
No35.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.4%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)68.1%
Handicap -1Daejeon Citizen win26.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.4%
Loss53.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
1-29.3%
2-17.1%

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen stats

Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen recent form

newest first
Incheon United LWLDLW
Daejeon Citizen DWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen going into this match

league record before kick-off

Incheon United record

  • They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
  • 51% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Daejeon Citizen record

  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Incheon United wins 2Draws 3Daejeon Citizen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-05Daejeon CitizenIncheon UnitedK League 10-0
2026-03-18Incheon UnitedDaejeon CitizenK League 11-3
2024-11-10Incheon UnitedDaejeon CitizenK League 11-2
2024-08-17Daejeon CitizenIncheon UnitedK League 12-1
2024-05-18Daejeon CitizenIncheon UnitedK League 10-1
2024-03-30Incheon UnitedDaejeon CitizenK League 12-0
2023-07-16Incheon UnitedDaejeon CitizenK League 12-0
2023-06-04Daejeon CitizenIncheon UnitedK League 11-3
2023-03-04Incheon UnitedDaejeon CitizenK League 13-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.0%, draw 28.5%, away 38.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.88 3.25 2.41
Bet365 2.70 3.30 2.38
BetVictor 2.80 3.30 2.40
Betano 2.72 3.20 2.55
Betfair 2.80 3.30 2.40
Marathonbet 2.86 3.25 2.39
Pinnacle 2.99 3.38 2.49
SBO 2.63 3.02 2.28
William Hill 2.80 3.10 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.09
X 3.25 ▼ -0.01
2 2.40 ▼ -0.10

11 snapshots recorded, from .