Yarud Mariupol'
vs
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yarud Mariupol'
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yarud Mariupol' vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk
| Probability | Yarud Mariupol' | Draw | Ahrobiznes Volochysk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.4% | 27.5% | 21.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.4% | 27.5% | 21.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk match preview
Yarud Mariupol' hosts Ahrobiznes Volochysk in a Persha Liga clash on November 20, 2026. According to our model, Yarud Mariupol' has a 50% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 27% and Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.64 for Yarud Mariupol' and 1.04 for Ahrobiznes Volochysk.
In terms of recent form, Yarud Mariupol' has recorded a series of strong performances with four wins and two draws, while Ahrobiznes Volochysk has also been in good form, with four wins, a draw, and one loss in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows Yarud Mariupol' with one win and Ahrobiznes Volochysk with two wins in their last three encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Yarud Mariupol' and Ahrobiznes Volochysk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Yarud Mariupol' and Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack and defence ratings
Yarud Mariupol'
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
Before and after this match
Yarud Mariupol' vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 51.4% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 2-0 | 10.0% |
Yarud Mariupol' vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk stats
Yarud Mariupol' and Ahrobiznes Volochysk recent form
| Yarud Mariupol' |
WDWWWW |
| Ahrobiznes Volochysk |
LWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yarud Mariupol' and Ahrobiznes Volochysk season so far
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ahrobiznes Volochysk record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Yarud Mariupol' | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | Persha Liga | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.