Albania
vs
Finland
Garuda Lions Prediction: Albania
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Albania is the favourite, not a value bet.
Albania vs Finland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Albania vs Finland
| Probability | Albania | Draw | Finland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 29.5% | 30.4% |
| Market | 48.3% | 27.0% | 24.7% |
| Final | 46.3% | 27.7% | 26.1% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +0.6% | +1.4% |
Why Albania
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.7% per unit staked (our 46.3% × 1.91 − 1).
Albania vs Finland match preview
Albania faces Finland in the UEFA Nations League with a probability of 46% for an Albanian victory, while a draw stands at 28% and a Finnish win at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Albania, occurring with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Albania are 1.35, compared to Finland's 1.14, indicating a potentially close match.
In terms of recent form, Albania has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Finland has a mixed record of two wins, one draw, and three losses. Historically, in their last encounter, Finland emerged victorious, having won once against Albania, who has yet to secure a win in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Albania and Finland expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.49
Albania and Finland attack and defence ratings
Albania
Finland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League C - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Albania vs Finland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albania | 46.3% | 2.16 | -2.0% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albania | 46.3% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Finland | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% |
| No | 48.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Albania win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Albania vs Finland stats
Albania vs Finland head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Finland | Albania | UEFA Nations League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Albania vs Finland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.3%, draw 27.0%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.41 | 3.74 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .