Montenegro
vs
Latvia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Montenegro
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.97.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Montenegro is the favourite, not a value bet.
Montenegro vs Latvia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Montenegro vs Latvia
| Probability | Montenegro | Draw | Latvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 25.7% | 19.7% |
| Market | 70.3% | 19.2% | 10.5% |
| Final | 66.4% | 20.8% | 12.8% |
| Edge | -3.9% | +1.6% | +2.3% |
Why Montenegro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.1% per unit staked (our 66.4% × 1.31 − 1).
Montenegro vs Latvia match preview
Montenegro is set to face Latvia in the UEFA Nations League, with a strong probability of victory at 66%. The expected goals for Montenegro stand at 1.76, while Latvia is projected to score 0.97. Recent form indicates that Montenegro has been performing relatively well, with a record of D-W-W-W-L-W, whereas Latvia has struggled, recording L-L-D-L-L-L in their last six matches.
Historically, Montenegro has had the upper hand in their encounters, with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 4 meetings against Latvia, who have yet to secure a victory in this matchup. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Montenegro and Latvia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Montenegro and Latvia attack and defence ratings
Montenegro
Latvia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League C - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Montenegro vs Latvia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montenegro | 66.4% | 1.51 | -3.9% | 1.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montenegro | 66.4% |
| Draw | 20.8% | |
| Latvia | 12.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Montenegro win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 45.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.1% |
Montenegro vs Latvia stats
Montenegro and Latvia recent form
| Montenegro |
DWWWLW |
| Latvia |
LLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Montenegro vs Latvia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Latvia | Montenegro | UEFA Nations League | 1-2 |
| 2021-09-07 | Montenegro | Latvia | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-0 |
| 2021-03-24 | Latvia | Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 |
| 2020-10-07 | Montenegro | Latvia | Friendlies | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Montenegro vs Latvia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.3%, draw 19.2%, away 10.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 4.79 | 8.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .