Armenia
vs
Cyprus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cyprus
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.83.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Armenia vs Cyprus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Armenia vs Cyprus
| Probability | Armenia | Draw | Cyprus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.5% | 23.5% | 62.0% |
| Market | 42.5% | 26.9% | 30.6% |
| Final | 35.5% | 26.1% | 38.4% |
| Edge | -7.0% | -0.9% | +7.8% |
Why Cyprus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cyprus below our published probability: +7.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +15.7% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 3.01 − 1).
Armenia vs Cyprus match preview
Armenia faces Cyprus in the UEFA Nations League with a probability of 35% for an Armenian victory, while Cyprus has a 38% chance of winning, and a draw is at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2 in favor of Cyprus, with an expected goals tally of 0.83 for Armenia and 1.92 for Cyprus.
In terms of recent form, Armenia has struggled, recording two losses and a draw in their last three matches, while Cyprus has shown better form with two wins and a draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 52%, and both teams scoring is at 49%. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters shows an even split, with one win for each team and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Armenia and Cyprus expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Armenia and Cyprus attack and defence ratings
Armenia
Cyprus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League C - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Armenia vs Cyprus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cyprus | 38.4% | 2.60 | +7.8% | 3.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.0% | 2.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Armenia | 35.5% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Cyprus | 38.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cyprus win | 37.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 38.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.8% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
Armenia vs Cyprus stats
Armenia vs Cyprus head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Cyprus | Armenia | UEFA Nations League | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-28 | Armenia | Cyprus | Friendlies | 2-2 |
| 2017-11-13 | Armenia | Cyprus | Friendlies | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Armenia vs Cyprus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 26.9%, away 30.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.42 | 3.01 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .