San Marino
vs
Belarus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Belarus
0 – 3 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.17 vs 0.59.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Belarus is the favourite, not a value bet.
San Marino vs Belarus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Marino vs Belarus
| Probability | San Marino | Draw | Belarus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 3.6% | 10.1% | 86.3% |
| Market | 5.2% | 10.2% | 84.6% |
| Final | 4.8% | 10.2% | 85.0% |
| Edge | -0.4% | -0.0% | +0.4% |
Why Belarus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.17 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.6% per unit staked (our 85.0% × 1.04 − 1).
San Marino vs Belarus match preview
San Marino faces Belarus in the UEFA Nations League with a significant disparity in expected performance. According to our model, San Marino has a 5% chance of winning, while Belarus stands at 85%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-3 in favor of Belarus, with an expected goals tally of 0.59 for San Marino and 3.17 for Belarus.
Recent form highlights San Marino's struggles, having lost their last six matches, while Belarus has shown more resilience with two wins and two draws in their last six games. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 72%, and both teams to score stands at 43%. In their last three encounters, Belarus has secured victory each time against San Marino.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Marino and Belarus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.76
San Marino and Belarus attack and defence ratings
San Marino
Belarus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League C - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
San Marino vs Belarus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belarus | 85.0% | 1.18 | +0.4% | 1.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 95.2% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Belarus win | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Marino | 4.8% |
| Draw | 10.2% | |
| Belarus | 85.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.3% |
| No | 56.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 15.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 89.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 95.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Belarus win | 69.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.4% | |
| Loss | 13.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-3 | 12.3% |
| 0-2 | 11.7% | |
| 0-4 | 9.8% |
San Marino vs Belarus stats
San Marino and Belarus recent form
| San Marino |
LLLLLL |
| Belarus |
WWDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Marino vs Belarus head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Belarus | San Marino | UEFA Nations League | 4-0 |
| 2018-11-18 | San Marino | Belarus | UEFA Nations League | 0-2 |
| 2018-09-08 | Belarus | San Marino | UEFA Nations League | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Marino vs Belarus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 5.2%, draw 10.2%, away 84.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 17.00 | 8.65 | 1.04 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .