Belarus
vs
Finland
1 – 0 Full time
| 1′ | Artem Shumanskiy | ||
| 27′ | Artem Shumanskiy | ||
| 27′ | German Barkovskiy | ||
| 38′ | Valery Bocherov | ||
| 45′ | Valery BocherovVitali Lisakovich | ||
| 45′ | Artem ShumanskiyAnton Kovalev | ||
| 58′ | adrian svanbackJoel Pohjanpalo | ||
| 58′ | Onni ValakariOiva Jukkola | ||
| 62′ | German BarkovskiyTrofim Melnichenko | ||
| 67′ | Matti PeltolaSanteri Väänänen | ||
| 67′ | Juho LähteenmäkiBenjamin Källman | ||
| 74′ | Ryan MahutaDaniel Håkans | ||
| 75′ | Benjamin Källman | ||
| 83′ | Kirill Pechenin | ||
| 84′ | Aleksandr SelyavaEvgeni Yablonski | ||
| 90′ | Samuli Miettinen |
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 26 | Possession % | 74 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 147 | Accurate passes | 563 |
Belarus vs Finland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Belarus vs Finland
| Probability | Belarus | Draw | Finland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.2% | 25.0% | 52.8% |
| Market | 22.8% | 29.2% | 48.0% |
| Final | 22.7% | 28.2% | 49.2% |
| Edge | -0.6% | -4.2% | +4.8% |
Why Finland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Finland below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Belarus and Finland expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Belarus and Finland attack and defence ratings
Belarus
Finland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Belarus vs Finland: result vs prediction
Belarus 1 – 0 Finland
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League C - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Belarus vs Finland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Finland | 49.2% | 2.03 | +4.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belarus | 22.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Finland | 49.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Finland win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.7% |
Belarus vs Finland stats
Belarus vs Finland head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Finland | Belarus | UEFA Nations League | 0-0 |
| 2018-06-09 | Finland | Belarus | Friendlies | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Belarus vs Finland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.8%, draw 29.2%, away 48.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.25 | 3.34 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.20 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.13 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.25 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.00 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 3.30 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 4.27 | 3.24 | 2.01 |
| SBO | 3.81 | 3.02 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.00 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .