Luxembourg
vs
Bulgaria
0 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | Kristiyan Balov | ||
| 31′ | Georgi Rusev | ||
| 34′ | Atanas Iliev | ||
| 41′ | Stefan Velkov | ||
| 45′ | Anthony MorisTiago Pereira Cardoso | ||
| 45′ | jayson videiraAiman Dardari | ||
| 45′ | Enzo dos SantosMathias Olesen | ||
| 50′ | Georgi RusevP. Panayotov | ||
| 51′ | Yoan Stoyanov | ||
| 66′ | Kristiyan BalovStanislav Ivanov | ||
| 66′ | Atanas IlievVladimir Nikolov | ||
| 67′ | J. de Sousa Moreira CruzTimothé Rupil | ||
| 78′ | Eric VeigaSebastien Thill | ||
| 81′ | Dirk Carlson | ||
| 83′ | Martin MinchevKristian Dimitrov |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 7 |
| 512 | Accurate passes | 264 |
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
| Probability | Luxembourg | Draw | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.5% | 31.6% | 34.9% |
| Market | 42.0% | 30.3% | 27.7% |
| Final | 39.9% | 30.7% | 29.5% |
| Edge | -8.5% | +1.3% | +7.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Luxembourg and Bulgaria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
Luxembourg and Bulgaria attack and defence ratings
Luxembourg
Bulgaria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: result vs prediction
Luxembourg 0 – 2 Bulgaria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League C - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luxembourg | 39.9% | 2.51 | -8.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luxembourg | 39.9% |
| Draw | 30.7% | |
| Bulgaria | 29.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luxembourg win | 14.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 66.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 12.2% | |
| 0-1 | 10.8% |
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria stats
Luxembourg and Bulgaria recent form
| Luxembourg |
LLWLLL |
| Bulgaria |
LDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Bulgaria | Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-15 | Luxembourg | Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-12 | Bulgaria | Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-20 | Luxembourg | Bulgaria | Friendlies | 0-0 |
| 2017-10-10 | Luxembourg | Bulgaria | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 |
| 2016-09-06 | Bulgaria | Luxembourg | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.0%, draw 30.3%, away 27.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 3.26 | 3.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.22 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.09 | 3.53 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 2.93 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.90 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .