Estonia
vs
Iceland
0 – 0 Full time
| 25′ | Daniel Leo Gretarsson | ||
| 61′ | Joseph SalisteMichael Schjonning-Larsen | ||
| 61′ | Mattias Männilaankarel mustmaa | ||
| 61′ | Kevor PalumetsMattias Käit | ||
| 67′ | Hörður MagnússonLogi Tomasson | ||
| 67′ | Gylfi SigurðssonBrynjólfur Darri Willumsson | ||
| 68′ | Patrik KristalMaximilian skvortsov | ||
| 84′ | Michael Schjonning-Larsen |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 274 | Accurate passes | 492 |
Estonia vs Iceland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estonia vs Iceland
| Probability | Estonia | Draw | Iceland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9.3% | 16.0% | 74.7% |
| Market | 16.4% | 23.6% | 60.0% |
| Final | 14.6% | 21.7% | 63.7% |
| Edge | -7.1% | -7.6% | +14.7% |
Why Iceland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Iceland below the model: +14.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estonia and Iceland expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.60
Estonia and Iceland attack and defence ratings
Estonia
Iceland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Estonia vs Iceland: result vs prediction
Estonia 0 – 0 Iceland
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League C - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estonia vs Iceland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iceland | 63.7% | 1.57 | +14.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Iceland win | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estonia | 14.6% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Iceland | 63.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Iceland win | 54.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 25.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.0% |
| 0-3 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
Estonia vs Iceland stats
Estonia vs Iceland head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Iceland | Estonia | UEFA Nations League | 1-1 |
| 2023-01-08 | Iceland | Estonia | Friendlies | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estonia vs Iceland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.4%, draw 23.6%, away 60.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.81 | 4.14 | 1.62 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.57 |
| Betano | 5.90 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.80 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 5.75 | 4.10 | 1.60 |
| Pinnacle | 5.80 | 4.00 | 1.61 |
| SBO | 5.22 | 3.70 | 1.55 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .