Iceland
vs
Bulgaria
3 – 0 Full time
| 4′ | Hörður Magnússon | ||
| 10′ | Lukas Petkov | ||
| 27′ | Dimitar Velkovski | ||
| 32′ | Mikael Ellertsson | ||
| 37′ | Orri Steinn Óskarsson | ||
| 45′ | Arnór SigurðssonAndri Guðjohnsen | ||
| 45′ | Aron GunnarssonDaniel Leo Gretarsson | ||
| 55′ | Ilia GruevEmil Tsenov | ||
| 55′ | Lukas PetkovMarin Plamenov·Petkov | ||
| 59′ | Atanas Iliev | ||
| 60′ | Orri Steinn Óskarsson | ||
| 62′ | Andri Fannar BaldurssonVictor Pálsson | ||
| 62′ | Jón Dagur ÞórsteinssonGylfi Sigurðsson | ||
| 67′ | Asen ChandarovP. Panayotov | ||
| 67′ | Georgi RusevZdravko Dimitrov | ||
| 80′ | Marin Plamenov·Petkov | ||
| 82′ | Hákon Arnar HaraldssonLogi Tomasson | ||
| 83′ | Atanas IlievVladimir Nikolov | ||
| 90′ | Mikael Ellertsson |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 344 | Accurate passes | 336 |
Iceland vs Bulgaria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Iceland vs Bulgaria
| Probability | Iceland | Draw | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.0% | 17.4% | 11.6% |
| Market | 65.2% | 21.3% | 13.4% |
| Final | 66.7% | 20.4% | 13.0% |
| Edge | +5.8% | -4.0% | -1.9% |
Why Iceland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Iceland below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Iceland and Bulgaria expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.62
Iceland and Bulgaria attack and defence ratings
Iceland
Bulgaria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Iceland vs Bulgaria: result vs prediction
Iceland 3 – 0 Bulgaria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League C - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Iceland vs Bulgaria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iceland | 66.7% | 1.50 | +5.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Iceland win | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iceland | 66.7% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Bulgaria | 13.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Iceland win | 50.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 28.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |
Iceland vs Bulgaria stats
Iceland vs Bulgaria head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Iceland vs Bulgaria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.2%, draw 21.3%, away 13.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.55 | 7.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.50 | 6.90 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 4.55 | 6.99 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 3.97 | 6.18 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .