Latvia
vs
Montenegro
1 – 2 Full time
| 3′ | Vasilije Adzic | ||
| 28′ | Roberts SavalnieksRaivis Jurkovskis | ||
| 39′ | Antonijs Černomordijs | ||
| 56′ | Vasilije Adzic | ||
| 60′ | Risto RadunovićMarko Perović | ||
| 61′ | Marko Jankovićviktor djukanovic | ||
| 61′ | Milutin OsmajićMilos Brnovic | ||
| 65′ | Antonijs ČernomordijsEduards Daskevics | ||
| 65′ | Roberts UldriķisVladislavs Gutkovskis | ||
| 68′ | Nikola KrstovićAleksa Latkovic | ||
| 78′ | Stevan JovetićDušan Vuković | ||
| 78′ | Dmitrijs ZelenkovsKristers Cudars | ||
| 78′ | danila patijcuksMarkuss Strods | ||
| 82′ | Markuss Strods | ||
| 90′ | Aleksa Latkovic |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 440 | Accurate passes | 450 |
Latvia vs Montenegro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Latvia vs Montenegro
| Probability | Latvia | Draw | Montenegro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.4% | 19.8% | 68.8% |
| Market | 19.3% | 27.0% | 53.7% |
| Final | 17.3% | 25.2% | 57.5% |
| Edge | -7.9% | -7.2% | +15.1% |
Why Montenegro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Montenegro below the model: +15.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Latvia and Montenegro expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
Latvia and Montenegro attack and defence ratings
Latvia
Montenegro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Latvia vs Montenegro: result vs prediction
Latvia 1 – 2 Montenegro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League C - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Latvia vs Montenegro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montenegro | 57.5% | 1.74 | +15.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Montenegro win | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Latvia | 17.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Montenegro | 57.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Montenegro win | 46.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 31.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-1 | 9.5% |
Latvia vs Montenegro stats
Latvia and Montenegro recent form
| Latvia |
DLLLDL |
| Montenegro |
WWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Latvia vs Montenegro head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-09-07 | Montenegro | Latvia | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-0 |
| 2021-03-24 | Latvia | Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 |
| 2020-10-07 | Montenegro | Latvia | Friendlies | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Latvia vs Montenegro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.3%, draw 27.0%, away 53.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.95 | 3.62 | 1.81 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 5.10 | 3.60 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| Marathonbet | 4.90 | 3.58 | 1.79 |
| Pinnacle | 4.91 | 3.68 | 1.76 |
| SBO | 4.39 | 3.23 | 1.76 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .