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UEFA Nations League · Full time ·League C - 3

Finland vs Albania

2 – 1 Full time

4′Rey Manaj
22′Etrit Berisha
25′Arber HoxhaAlen Sherri
26′Leo Walta
26′Alen Sherri
40′Kaan Kairinen
45′Kaan KairinenGlen Kamara
45′Rey ManajMirlind Daku
62′Daniel HåkansOiva Jukkola
62′Tony MiettinenLeo Väisänen
65′Ernest MuciMyrto Uzuni
71′Leo Walta
74′Berat Djimsiti
77′Stavros PiliosAnis·Mehmeti
77′Kristjan AsllaniJuljan Shehu
80′Myrto Uzuni
80′Anis·Mehmeti
81′Rolando Maran
82′Leo WaltaOnni Valakari
89′Adam MarkhievMatti Peltola

Helsinki Olympic Stadium, HelsinkiReferee: Robert Hennessy

Finland 35%
Draw 30%
Albania 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 5
60 Possession % 40
7 Corners 6
13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 3
4 Saves 1
541 Accurate passes 335

Finland vs Albania overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Finland vs Albania

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFinlandDrawAlbania
Model23.1%28.6%48.4%
Market39.5%30.9%29.6%
Final35.4%30.3%34.3%
Edge-16.5%-2.3%+18.8%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Finland ↓ / Albania → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 12% 10% 1 7% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Finland and Albania expected goals

Finland 0.96
Albania 1.49

Total expected goals: 2.45

Finland and Albania attack and defence ratings

Finland

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Albania

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Finland vs Albania: result vs prediction

Finland 2 – 1 Albania

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League C - 3 fixtures

UEFA Nations League

Before and after this match

Finland vs Albania markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Finland 35.4% 2.82 -16.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score No 50.9% 1.97 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.7% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 76.9% 1.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Finland35.4%
Draw30.3%
Albania34.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.5%
Under 2.555.5%
Both teams to scoreYes49.1%
No50.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.7%
12 (either side)69.7%
X2 (draw or away)64.6%
Handicap -1Finland win8.5%
Push (exactly one goal)14.5%
Loss76.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
0-111.6%
0-09.8%

Finland vs Albania stats

Finland and Albania recent form

newest first
Finland DWLLWL
Albania WWLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Finland vs Albania head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Finland vs Albania odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 30.9%, away 29.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.44 3.23 3.21
Bet365 2.38 3.10 3.10
BetVictor 2.38 3.00 3.20
Betano 2.45 3.05 3.20
Betfair 2.30 3.00 3.00
Marathonbet 2.41 3.20 3.18
Pinnacle 2.47 3.05 3.28
SBO 2.36 2.83 2.82
William Hill 2.30 2.90 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.38 ▼ -0.04
X 3.05 ▼ -0.15
2 3.18 ▲ +0.18

5 snapshots recorded, from .