Belarus
vs
San Marino
4 – 0 Full time
| 30′ | Nicola Nanni | ||
| 42′ | Alessandro Golinucci | ||
| 45′ | Alessandro GolinucciMarcello Mularoni | ||
| 45′ | Timofey SimanenkaVitali Lisakovich | ||
| 46′ | Artem Kontsevoy | ||
| 54′ | Roman Begunov | ||
| 55′ | Roman Begunovvladislav kalinin | ||
| 55′ | Valeri GromykoArtem Shumanskiy | ||
| 57′ | Nicholas Giacopetti | ||
| 65′ | Artem Shumanskiy | ||
| 67′ | S. GiocondiAlessandro Tosi | ||
| 67′ | Lorenzo LazzariSamuel·Pancotti | ||
| 68′ | Max Ebong | ||
| 69′ | Max EbongValery Bocherov | ||
| 73′ | Lorenzo·Capicchioni | ||
| 74′ | Trofim MelnichenkoGerman Barkovskiy | ||
| 75′ | giacomo benvenutiF. Fabbri | ||
| 78′ | Marco pasolini | ||
| 83′ | Lorenzo·CapicchioniC. Meloni | ||
| 85′ | German Barkovskiy | ||
| 86′ | vladislav kalinin | ||
| 88′ | Artem Kontsevoy |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 412 | Accurate passes | 243 |
Belarus vs San Marino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Belarus vs San Marino
| Probability | Belarus | Draw | San Marino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.4% | 19.3% | 9.3% |
| Market | 88.7% | 8.6% | 2.6% |
| Final | 84.4% | 11.3% | 4.3% |
| Edge | -17.3% | +10.6% | +6.7% |
Why Belarus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.69.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Belarus and San Marino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Belarus and San Marino attack and defence ratings
Belarus
San Marino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Belarus vs San Marino: result vs prediction
Belarus 4 – 0 San Marino
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League C - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Belarus vs San Marino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belarus | 84.4% | 1.18 | -17.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.7% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Belarus win | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Belarus | 84.4% |
| Draw | 11.3% | |
| San Marino | 4.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 15.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Belarus win | 48.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 28.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.2% | |
| 3-0 | 9.9% |
Belarus vs San Marino stats
Belarus and San Marino recent form
| Belarus |
DLDDLL |
| San Marino |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Belarus vs San Marino head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-18 | San Marino | Belarus | UEFA Nations League | 0-2 |
| 2018-09-08 | Belarus | San Marino | UEFA Nations League | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Belarus vs San Marino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 88.7%, draw 8.6%, away 2.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.08 | 12.40 | 40.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.06 | 12.00 | 26.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.06 | 10.50 | 36.00 |
| Betano | 1.09 | 9.25 | 40.00 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 11.00 | 26.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.07 | 12.00 | 43.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.07 | 12.65 | 37.76 |
| SBO | 1.07 | 8.30 | 19.24 |
| William Hill | 1.07 | 10.00 | 36.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .