Albania
vs
San Marino
2 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | Kristjan Asllani | ||
| 38′ | F. Fabbri | ||
| 45′ | Ernest MuciAnis·Mehmeti | ||
| 51′ | Michele Cevoli | ||
| 56′ | Arber HoxhaMyrto Uzuni | ||
| 58′ | Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizSamuel·Pancotti | ||
| 58′ | C. MeloniLorenzo Lazzari | ||
| 59′ | Michele Cevoligiacomo benvenuti | ||
| 64′ | Dante RossiMarco pasolini | ||
| 66′ | Lorenzo Lazzari | ||
| 71′ | Juljan ShehuMirlind Daku | ||
| 71′ | Mario MitajYlber Ramadani | ||
| 76′ | S. Giocondi | ||
| 84′ | Nicholas Giacopetti | ||
| 86′ | Lorenzo·CapicchioniG. Bugli | ||
| 90′ | Ardian Ismajli | ||
| 90′ | Kristjan Asllani |
Match stats
| 26 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 70 | Possession % | 30 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 495 | Accurate passes | 166 |
Albania vs San Marino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Albania vs San Marino
| Probability | Albania | Draw | San Marino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 93.5% | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| Market | 92.9% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Final | 93.1% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +0.1% | -0.7% |
Why Albania
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.78 vs 0.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Albania and San Marino expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.17
Albania and San Marino attack and defence ratings
Albania
San Marino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Albania vs San Marino: result vs prediction
Albania 2 – 1 San Marino
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League C - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Albania vs San Marino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albania | 93.1% | 1.07 | +0.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 98.3% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Albania win | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albania | 93.1% |
| Draw | 5.2% | |
| San Marino | 1.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.1% |
| No | 67.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 98.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 94.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 6.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Albania win | 82.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.2% | |
| Loss | 6.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 13.9% |
| 4-0 | 13.1% | |
| 2-0 | 11.0% |
Albania vs San Marino stats
Albania and San Marino recent form
| Albania |
LWWLLW |
| San Marino |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Albania vs San Marino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | San Marino | Albania | UEFA Nations League | 0-3 |
| 2021-09-08 | Albania | San Marino | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 5-0 |
| 2021-03-31 | San Marino | Albania | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Albania vs San Marino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 92.9%, draw 5.2%, away 1.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.04 | 18.00 | 55.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.02 | 17.00 | 51.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.02 | 13.00 | 111.00 |
| Betano | 1.04 | 18.50 | 32.00 |
| Betfair | 1.02 | 21.00 | 46.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.04 | 16.50 | 51.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.02 | 25.52 | 49.29 |
| William Hill | 1.03 | 19.00 | 56.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .