Estonia
vs
Luxembourg
1 – 0 Full time
| 5′ | Rasmus Peetson | ||
| 29′ | Enes Mahmutovic | ||
| 44′ | Jürgen Henn | ||
| 62′ | Aiman DardariHamza Kadamani | ||
| 62′ | Enzo dos SantosSebastien Thill | ||
| 66′ | Mattias Männilaankarel mustmaa | ||
| 68′ | Omar Natami | ||
| 72′ | Kevor PalumetsMarkus Soomets | ||
| 73′ | Vincent ThillTimothé Rupil | ||
| 73′ | Märten Kuusk | ||
| 78′ | Vahid Selimović | ||
| 80′ | Mattias KäitMihkel Ainsalu | ||
| 82′ | Karol Mets | ||
| 83′ | Florian BohnertMathias Olesen | ||
| 83′ | Enes MahmutovicEldin Dzogovic | ||
| 84′ | Leandro Barreiro | ||
| 85′ | Eldin Dzogovic | ||
| 87′ | Mathias Olesen | ||
| 88′ | Markus Poom |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 8 |
| 398 | Accurate passes | 479 |
Estonia vs Luxembourg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estonia vs Luxembourg
| Probability | Estonia | Draw | Luxembourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.2% | 29.2% | 40.6% |
| Market | 31.4% | 31.6% | 37.0% |
| Final | 31.1% | 31.0% | 37.9% |
| Edge | -1.2% | -2.4% | +3.6% |
Why Luxembourg
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Luxembourg below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estonia and Luxembourg expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Estonia and Luxembourg attack and defence ratings
Estonia
Luxembourg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Estonia vs Luxembourg: result vs prediction
Estonia 1 – 0 Luxembourg
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League C - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estonia vs Luxembourg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luxembourg | 37.9% | 2.64 | +3.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estonia | 31.1% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Luxembourg | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luxembourg win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
Estonia vs Luxembourg stats
Estonia and Luxembourg recent form
| Estonia |
DDLDLL |
| Luxembourg |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estonia vs Luxembourg head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Estonia vs Luxembourg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 31.6%, away 37.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.08 | 3.02 | 2.67 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 2.88 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 2.98 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 3.09 | 2.95 | 2.67 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 2.84 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .