Luxembourg
vs
Iceland
0 – 3 Full time
| 13′ | Andri Guðjohnsen | ||
| 15′ | Laurent JansMarvin Martins | ||
| 35′ | Hakon Valdimarsson | ||
| 39′ | Orri Steinn Óskarsson | ||
| 59′ | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | ||
| 62′ | Vincent Thilljayson videira | ||
| 62′ | Mathias OlesenEnzo dos Santos | ||
| 67′ | Stefán Teitur ThórdarsonHörður Magnússon | ||
| 72′ | Leandro Barreiro | ||
| 73′ | Victor Pálsson | ||
| 74′ | Orri Steinn ÓskarssonBrynjólfur Darri Willumsson | ||
| 75′ | Andri GuðjohnsenMikael Anderson | ||
| 75′ | Hákon Arnar HaraldssonIsak Thorvaldsson | ||
| 76′ | J. de Sousa Moreira CruzTimothé Rupil | ||
| 76′ | Hamza KadamaniOmar Natami | ||
| 78′ | Mikael Ellertsson | ||
| 85′ | Victor PálssonArnór Sigurðsson | ||
| 90′ | Enes Mahmutovic | ||
| 90′ | Isak Thorvaldsson |
Match stats
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 4 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 561 | Accurate passes | 325 |
Luxembourg vs Iceland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Luxembourg vs Iceland
| Probability | Luxembourg | Draw | Iceland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.4% | 16.8% | 72.8% |
| Market | 27.6% | 28.8% | 43.6% |
| Final | 23.3% | 25.8% | 50.9% |
| Edge | -17.1% | -12.0% | +29.2% |
Why Iceland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 0.96.
- The market prices Iceland below the model: +29.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Luxembourg and Iceland expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Luxembourg and Iceland attack and defence ratings
Luxembourg
Iceland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Luxembourg vs Iceland: result vs prediction
Luxembourg 0 – 3 Iceland
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League C - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Luxembourg vs Iceland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iceland | 50.9% | 1.97 | +29.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Iceland win | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luxembourg | 23.3% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Iceland | 50.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Iceland win | 52.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 26.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 0-3 | 8.5% |
Luxembourg vs Iceland stats
Luxembourg and Iceland recent form
| Luxembourg |
WLLLLL |
| Iceland |
DLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Luxembourg vs Iceland head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-13 | Iceland | Luxembourg | Euro Championship - Qualification | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-08 | Luxembourg | Iceland | Euro Championship - Qualification | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Luxembourg vs Iceland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.6%, draw 28.8%, away 43.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.54 | 3.46 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.25 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.50 | 3.42 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 3.52 | 3.35 | 2.19 |
| SBO | 2.89 | 2.99 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .