Bulgaria
vs
Luxembourg
1 – 2 Full time
| 18′ | Asen Chandarov | ||
| 28′ | Lukas Petkov | ||
| 35′ | Emil Tsenov | ||
| 37′ | Leandro Barreiro | ||
| 45′ | J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz | ||
| 45′ | Danel SinaniTimothé Rupil | ||
| 45′ | Georgi RusevStanislav Ivanov | ||
| 56′ | Asen ChandarovMartin Minchev | ||
| 65′ | Vincent Thill | ||
| 68′ | Emil TsenovP. Panayotov | ||
| 68′ | Zdravko DimitrovMarin Plamenov·Petkov | ||
| 72′ | Vincent ThillMathias Olesen | ||
| 82′ | Teodor·Valentinov IvanovStefan Velkov | ||
| 83′ | Dirk Carlson | ||
| 83′ | Hamza KadamaniSebastien Thill | ||
| 83′ | Aiman Dardarijayson videira | ||
| 90′ | J. de Sousa Moreira CruzMiguel Fernandes Goncalves |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 6 |
| 342 | Accurate passes | 351 |
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bulgaria vs Luxembourg
| Probability | Bulgaria | Draw | Luxembourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.7% | 27.5% | 39.8% |
| Market | 40.6% | 31.2% | 28.2% |
| Final | 38.6% | 30.3% | 31.1% |
| Edge | -7.8% | -3.7% | +11.6% |
Why Bulgaria
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bulgaria and Luxembourg expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Bulgaria and Luxembourg attack and defence ratings
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: result vs prediction
Bulgaria 1 – 2 Luxembourg
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League C - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bulgaria | 38.6% | 2.59 | -7.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bulgaria | 38.6% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Luxembourg | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bulgaria win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 67.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg stats
Bulgaria and Luxembourg recent form
| Bulgaria |
WLLLLL |
| Luxembourg |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-15 | Luxembourg | Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-12 | Bulgaria | Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-20 | Luxembourg | Bulgaria | Friendlies | 0-0 |
| 2017-10-10 | Luxembourg | Bulgaria | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 |
| 2016-09-06 | Bulgaria | Luxembourg | World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 31.5%, away 28.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.13 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 2.90 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 3.10 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.39 | 3.09 | 3.38 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.82 | 2.99 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .