San Marino
vs
Finland
0 – 7 Full time
| 5′ | Joel Pohjanpalo | ||
| 14′ | adrian svanback | ||
| 33′ | Benjamin Källman | ||
| 43′ | Adam Markhiev | ||
| 45′ | Topi KeskinenAdam Stahl | ||
| 45′ | Ville KoskiTony Miettinen | ||
| 45′ | Adam MarkhievSanteri Väänänen | ||
| 50′ | Leo Walta | ||
| 51′ | Alessandro Golinucci | ||
| 55′ | Leo Walta | ||
| 59′ | Lorenzo·CapicchioniMarcello Mularoni | ||
| 59′ | Nicholas GiacopettiSamuel·Pancotti | ||
| 59′ | Benjamin KällmanRobin Lod | ||
| 70′ | S. ZannoniS. Giocondi | ||
| 70′ | F. FabbriBalda Enea Della | ||
| 70′ | Leo WaltaOnni Valakari | ||
| 79′ | Joel Pohjanpalo | ||
| 79′ | Michele Cevoligiacomo benvenuti | ||
| 86′ | C. Meloni | ||
| 88′ | Joel Pohjanpalo |
Match stats
| 1 | Shots | 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Shots on target | 11 |
| 25 | Possession % | 75 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 0 |
| 169 | Accurate passes | 716 |
San Marino vs Finland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Marino vs Finland
| Probability | San Marino | Draw | Finland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 3.7% | 8.2% | 88.1% |
| Market | 3.3% | 9.3% | 87.4% |
| Final | 3.4% | 9.0% | 87.6% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -1.1% | +0.7% |
Why Finland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.90 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Marino and Finland expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.71
San Marino and Finland attack and defence ratings
San Marino
Finland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
San Marino vs Finland: result vs prediction
San Marino 0 – 7 Finland
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League C - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
San Marino vs Finland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Finland | 87.6% | 1.14 | +0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 96.6% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Finland win | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Marino | 3.4% |
| Draw | 9.0% | |
| Finland | 87.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 12.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 91.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 96.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Finland win | 76.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.7% | |
| Loss | 10.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-3 | 9.4% |
| 0-4 | 8.8% | |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
San Marino vs Finland stats
San Marino and Finland recent form
| San Marino |
LLLLLL |
| Finland |
LLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Marino vs Finland head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-20 | San Marino | Finland | Euro Championship - Qualification | 1-2 |
| 2023-06-19 | Finland | San Marino | Euro Championship - Qualification | 6-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Marino vs Finland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 3.2%, draw 9.5%, away 87.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 50.00 | 10.40 | 1.09 |
| Bet365 | 23.00 | 10.00 | 1.08 |
| BetVictor | 31.00 | 11.00 | 1.06 |
| Betano | 27.00 | 9.00 | 1.11 |
| Betfair | 26.00 | 11.00 | 1.05 |
| Marathonbet | 36.00 | 9.80 | 1.10 |
| SBO | 20.20 | 6.28 | 1.06 |
| William Hill | 41.00 | 8.50 | 1.08 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .