Iceland
vs
Estonia
1 – 1 Full time
| 30′ | Albert GudmundssonIsak Thorvaldsson | ||
| 45′ | Andri Guðjohnsen | ||
| 54′ | Karol Mets | ||
| 61′ | Mihkel AinsaluPatrik Kristal | ||
| 64′ | Maksim Paskotsi | ||
| 75′ | Jón Dagur ÞórsteinssonArnór Sigurðsson | ||
| 75′ | Ísak Bergmann JóhannessonGylfi Sigurðsson | ||
| 78′ | karel mustmaaAlex Matthias Tamm | ||
| 81′ | Rasmus Peetson | ||
| 84′ | Stefán Teitur Thórdarson | ||
| 84′ | Mikael EllertssonLogi Tomasson | ||
| 85′ | Andri GuðjohnsenKristall Mani Ingason | ||
| 86′ | Mattias KäitMarkus Soomets |
Match stats
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 7 |
| 460 | Accurate passes | 218 |
Iceland vs Estonia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Iceland vs Estonia
| Probability | Iceland | Draw | Estonia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 82.7% | 10.3% | 7.0% |
| Market | 74.3% | 17.1% | 8.5% |
| Final | 76.4% | 15.4% | 8.1% |
| Edge | +8.3% | -6.8% | -1.5% |
Why Iceland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.97 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Iceland below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Iceland and Estonia expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.21
Iceland and Estonia attack and defence ratings
Iceland
Estonia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Iceland vs Estonia: result vs prediction
Iceland 1 – 1 Estonia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League C - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Iceland vs Estonia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iceland | 76.4% | 1.31 | +8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.9% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Iceland win | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iceland | 76.4% |
| Draw | 15.4% | |
| Estonia | 8.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Iceland win | 69.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.0% | |
| Loss | 16.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.4% |
| 4-1 | 7.0% | |
| 3-0 | 6.2% |
Iceland vs Estonia stats
Iceland vs Estonia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-08 | Iceland | Estonia | Friendlies | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Iceland vs Estonia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.8%, draw 17.3%, away 8.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 5.66 | 11.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.25 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 11.50 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 5.60 | 11.75 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.29 | 5.60 | 11.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 5.72 | 10.78 |
| SBO | 1.25 | 4.57 | 7.05 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .