Czechia
vs
Spain
Garuda Lions Prediction: Spain
0 – 3 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.69.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Spain is the favourite, not a value bet.
Czechia vs Spain overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Czechia vs Spain
| Probability | Czechia | Draw | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 4.8% | 11.4% | 83.8% |
| Market | 5.2% | 11.5% | 83.2% |
| Final | 5.1% | 11.5% | 83.4% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.0% | +0.1% |
Why Spain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (our 83.4% × 1.10 − 1).
Czechia vs Spain match preview
Czechia faces a challenging matchup against Spain in the UEFA Nations League, with the model indicating a significant advantage for the visitors. Czechia's recent form shows a troubling sequence of five losses followed by one draw, while Spain enters the match with an impressive six consecutive wins. The expected goals suggest a stark contrast, with Czechia projected to score only 0.69 compared to Spain's 3.09.
The probabilities reflect this disparity, with Czechia at 5% to win, a draw at 11%, and Spain leading at 83%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-3, which aligns with the high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 73%. Additionally, both teams are expected to score in only 48% of scenarios, further emphasizing Spain's dominance in this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Czechia and Spain expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Czechia and Spain attack and defence ratings
Czechia
Spain
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League A - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Czechia vs Spain markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | 83.4% | 1.20 | +0.1% | 1.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 94.9% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Czechia | 5.1% |
| Draw | 11.5% | |
| Spain | 83.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 16.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 94.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win | 66.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 16.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-3 | 11.2% |
| 0-2 | 10.9% | |
| 0-4 | 8.7% |
Czechia vs Spain stats
Czechia vs Spain head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Spain | Czechia | UEFA Nations League | 3-1 |
| 2022-06-12 | Spain | Czechia | UEFA Nations League | 2-0 |
| 2022-06-05 | Czechia | Spain | UEFA Nations League | 2-2 |
| 2016-06-13 | Spain | Czechia | Euro Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Czechia vs Spain odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 5.2%, draw 11.5%, away 83.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 17.50 | 7.95 | 1.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .