England
vs
Croatia
Garuda Lions Prediction: England
4 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.16 vs 1.37.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — England is the favourite, not a value bet.
England vs Croatia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: England vs Croatia
| Probability | England | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% |
| Market | 78.7% | 14.4% | 7.0% |
| Final | 79.9% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -1.3% | -0.0% |
Why England
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.16 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 79.9% × 1.18 − 1).
England vs Croatia match preview
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League match between England and Croatia, England holds a strong probability of winning at 80%, while Croatia stands at just 7%. The expected goals for England are significantly higher at 4.16 compared to Croatia's 1.37, indicating a potential high-scoring match. Our model suggests a most likely scoreline of 4-1, with a 91% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 74% likelihood that both teams will find the net.
Recent form shows England with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Croatia has struggled with three losses and only two wins. In their last six encounters, England has dominated with four wins, one draw, and just one loss to Croatia, reflecting a favorable head-to-head record for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
England and Croatia expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.53
England and Croatia attack and defence ratings
England
Croatia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League A - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
England vs Croatia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | 79.9% | 1.25 | +1.3% | 1.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 91.3% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.0% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | England win | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | 79.9% |
| Draw | 13.1% | |
| Croatia | 7.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 91.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 8.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.6% |
| No | 26.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 20.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | England win | 70.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.5% | |
| Loss | 16.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 4-1 | 6.8% |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | |
| 5-1 | 5.7% |
England vs Croatia stats
England vs Croatia head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Croatia | England | UEFA Nations League | 0-7 |
| 2026-06-17 | England | Croatia | World Cup | 4-2 |
| 2021-06-13 | England | Croatia | Euro Championship | 1-0 |
| 2018-11-18 | England | Croatia | UEFA Nations League | 2-1 |
| 2018-10-12 | Croatia | England | UEFA Nations League | 0-0 |
| 2018-07-11 | Croatia | England | World Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
England vs Croatia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.7%, draw 14.4%, away 7.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.18 | 6.36 | 12.50 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 6.50 | 14.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
49 snapshots recorded, from .