Croatia
vs
Spain
1 – 2 Full time
| 14′ | Slaven Bilic | ||
| 17′ | Ivan Perišić | ||
| 22′ | Ivan Perišić | ||
| 45′ | Alejandro Baena RodríguezMikel Merino | ||
| 61′ | Mikel Merino | ||
| 65′ | Luka Modrić | ||
| 65′ | Igor MatanovicDion Drena Beljo | ||
| 66′ | Luka ModrićPetar Sučić | ||
| 66′ | Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante | ||
| 71′ | Rodrigo Hernandez CascanteMartín Zubimendi | ||
| 71′ | Daniel Olmo CarvajalFermín López | ||
| 71′ | Nikola VlašićMartin Baturina | ||
| 78′ | Lamine YamalVíctor Muñoz | ||
| 79′ | Ivan Perišić | ||
| 87′ | PedriYeremy Pino | ||
| 88′ | Mateo KovačićMario Pašalić | ||
| 88′ | Mikel Merino | ||
| 90′ | Víctor Muñoz |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 28 | Possession % | 72 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 231 | Accurate passes | 696 |
Croatia vs Spain overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Croatia vs Spain
| Probability | Croatia | Draw | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.9% | 11.5% | 81.5% |
| Market | 9.8% | 16.0% | 74.2% |
| Final | 9.1% | 14.9% | 76.1% |
| Edge | -2.9% | -4.4% | +7.3% |
Why Spain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.41 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Spain below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Croatia and Spain expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.43
Croatia and Spain attack and defence ratings
Croatia
Spain
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Croatia vs Spain: result vs prediction
Croatia 1 – 2 Spain
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Croatia vs Spain markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | 76.1% | 1.31 | +7.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.9% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Croatia | 9.1% |
| Draw | 14.9% | |
| Spain | 76.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.3% |
| No | 37.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 23.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win | 65.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 18.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 8.0% |
| 0-3 | 7.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Croatia vs Spain stats
Croatia vs Spain head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Spain | Croatia | UEFA Nations League | 4-1 |
| 2024-06-15 | Spain | Croatia | Euro Championship | 3-0 |
| 2023-06-18 | Croatia | Spain | UEFA Nations League | 0-0 |
| 2021-06-28 | Croatia | Spain | Euro Championship | 3-5 |
| 2018-11-15 | Croatia | Spain | UEFA Nations League | 3-2 |
| 2018-09-11 | Spain | Croatia | UEFA Nations League | 6-0 |
| 2016-06-21 | Croatia | Spain | Euro Championship | 2-1 |
| 2012-06-18 | Croatia | Spain | Euro Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Croatia vs Spain odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.8%, draw 16.0%, away 74.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.00 | 6.18 | 1.31 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 6.25 | 1.27 |
| BetVictor | 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.29 |
| Betano | 11.25 | 6.70 | 1.27 |
| Betfair | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.25 |
| Marathonbet | 10.00 | 6.15 | 1.30 |
| Pinnacle | 9.77 | 5.92 | 1.29 |
| SBO | 8.68 | 5.80 | 1.26 |
| William Hill | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.29 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .