Netherlands
vs
Serbia
2 – 1 Full time
| 14′ | stefan gudelj | ||
| 30′ | Strahinja Pavlovic | ||
| 31′ | T. Koopmeiners | ||
| 35′ | M. Cvetkovic | ||
| 45′ | Tijjani Reijnders | ||
| 46′ | M. MeerdinkJ. Zirkzee | ||
| 49′ | Saša Lukić | ||
| 58′ | J. VeermanJ. Hato | ||
| 58′ | N. LangR. van Bommel | ||
| 59′ | R. GravenberchG. Zechiel | ||
| 66′ | A. StankovicN. Maksimovic | ||
| 66′ | D. TadicL. Jovic | ||
| 72′ | J. Zirkzee | ||
| 73′ | L. SamardzicA. Zivkovic | ||
| 74′ | Nemanja Maksimović | ||
| 74′ | A. TerzicF. Kostic | ||
| 79′ | S. GudeljN. Gudelj | ||
| 82′ | T. ReijndersQ. Timber | ||
| 83′ | Veljko Paunovic |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 65 | Possession % | 35 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 539 | Accurate passes | 255 |
Netherlands vs Serbia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Netherlands vs Serbia
| Probability | Netherlands | Draw | Serbia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.5% | 18.4% | 11.1% |
| Market | 84.0% | 10.9% | 5.0% |
| Final | 80.6% | 12.8% | 6.6% |
| Edge | -13.5% | +7.4% | +6.1% |
Why Netherlands
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Netherlands and Serbia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Netherlands and Serbia attack and defence ratings
Netherlands
Serbia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Netherlands vs Serbia: result vs prediction
Netherlands 2 – 1 Serbia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Netherlands vs Serbia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | 80.6% | 1.24 | -13.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.4% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Netherlands win | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | 80.6% |
| Draw | 12.8% | |
| Serbia | 6.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% |
| No | 45.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Netherlands win | 49.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 28.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 3-0 | 8.6% |
Netherlands vs Serbia stats
Netherlands and Serbia recent form
| Netherlands |
DWDDWW |
| Serbia |
LLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Netherlands vs Serbia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Serbia | Netherlands | UEFA Nations League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Netherlands vs Serbia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 84.0%, draw 10.9%, away 5.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.15 | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 7.50 | 19.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.11 | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| Betano | 1.16 | 8.75 | 19.50 |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 8.50 | 19.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.15 | 9.00 | 19.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.13 | 9.36 | 18.42 |
| SBO | 1.14 | 6.57 | 11.08 |
| William Hill | 1.14 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .