Portugal
vs
Norway
2 – 1 Full time
| 12′ | João Cancelo | ||
| 36′ | Kristoffer Ajer | ||
| 38′ | João Cancelo | ||
| 63′ | João PalhinhaRúben Neves | ||
| 63′ | João CanceloDiogo Dalot | ||
| 67′ | Erling HaalandJørgen Strand Larsen | ||
| 74′ | Antonio NusaOscar Bobb | ||
| 79′ | Gonçalo Ramos | ||
| 86′ | Francisco Conceição | ||
| 86′ | Francisco Conceição | ||
| 86′ | Francisco Conceição | ||
| 86′ | VitinhaBernardo Silva | ||
| 87′ | Patrick BergThelo Aasgaard | ||
| 88′ | Bruno Fernandes | ||
| 90′ | Bruno FernandesFrancisco Trincão | ||
| 90′ | João FélixNuno Tavares |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 59 | Possession % | 41 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 434 | Accurate passes | 274 |
Portugal vs Norway overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portugal vs Norway
| Probability | Portugal | Draw | Norway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.8% | 21.3% | 29.9% |
| Market | 57.7% | 21.6% | 20.7% |
| Final | 55.5% | 21.5% | 23.0% |
| Edge | -8.8% | -0.4% | +9.2% |
Why Portugal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.80.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portugal and Norway expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.13
Portugal and Norway attack and defence ratings
Portugal
Norway
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Portugal vs Norway: result vs prediction
Portugal 2 – 1 Norway
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portugal vs Norway markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugal | 55.5% | 1.80 | -8.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugal | 55.5% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Norway | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.8% |
| No | 24.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portugal win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Portugal vs Norway stats
Portugal vs Norway head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Norway | Portugal | UEFA Nations League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portugal vs Norway odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.7%, draw 21.6%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.54 | 4.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.33 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.40 | 4.65 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 4.55 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.45 | 4.73 |
| SBO | 1.55 | 4.00 | 4.35 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .