Denmark
vs
Portugal
2 – 4 Full time
| 13′ | João Cancelo | ||
| 23′ | Mikkel Damsgaard | ||
| 25′ | Gonçalo Ramos | ||
| 45′ | Adam DaghimGustav Isaksen | ||
| 53′ | Rasmus Hojlund | ||
| 63′ | João CanceloDiogo Dalot | ||
| 63′ | Rafael LeãoFrancisco Trincão | ||
| 67′ | Vitinha | ||
| 68′ | Jorge Fernando Pinheiro de Jesus | ||
| 74′ | Morten HjulmandVictor Froholdt | ||
| 79′ | Mohammed Daramy | ||
| 80′ | Joakim MaehleNikolas Nartey | ||
| 81′ | Gonçalo RamosJoão Neves | ||
| 81′ | Pedro NetoJoao Felix | ||
| 82′ | Rúben Neves | ||
| 85′ | Mikkel DamsgaardKasper Hogh | ||
| 87′ | Joao Felix | ||
| 90′ | Bruno FernandesTomás Araújo |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 1 |
| 457 | Accurate passes | 375 |
Denmark vs Portugal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Denmark vs Portugal
| Probability | Denmark | Draw | Portugal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.1% | 22.6% | 59.2% |
| Market | 28.0% | 25.7% | 46.4% |
| Final | 25.5% | 24.9% | 49.6% |
| Edge | -9.8% | -3.0% | +12.8% |
Why Portugal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Portugal below the model: +12.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Denmark and Portugal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Denmark and Portugal attack and defence ratings
Denmark
Portugal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Denmark vs Portugal: result vs prediction
Denmark 2 – 4 Portugal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Denmark vs Portugal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugal | 49.6% | 2.02 | +12.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Denmark | 25.5% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Portugal | 49.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portugal win | 37.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 40.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.2% |
Denmark vs Portugal stats
Denmark vs Portugal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-23 | Portugal | Denmark | UEFA Nations League | 5-2 |
| 2025-03-20 | Denmark | Portugal | UEFA Nations League | 1-0 |
| 2012-06-13 | Denmark | Portugal | Euro Championship | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Denmark vs Portugal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 25.7%, away 46.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.60 | 3.80 | 2.04 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.65 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.60 | 3.80 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.50 | 3.73 | 2.08 |
| SBO | 3.18 | 3.42 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .