France
vs
Italy
1 – 1 Full time
| 54′ | Nicolo Fagioli | ||
| 55′ | Michael Olise | ||
| 62′ | Pio EspositoAntonio Vergara | ||
| 62′ | Sandro TonaliNicolò Barella | ||
| 68′ | Alessandro Bastoni | ||
| 73′ | Dayot Upamecano | ||
| 73′ | Moise Kean | ||
| 76′ | Désiré DoueBradley Barcola | ||
| 76′ | Rayan CherkiEduardo Camavinga | ||
| 80′ | Sebastiano EspositoDaniel Maldini | ||
| 80′ | Davide FrattesiIssa Doumbia | ||
| 82′ | Antonio Vergara | ||
| 85′ | Dayot Upamecano | ||
| 87′ | Lucas Da CunhaMaxence Lacroix | ||
| 90′ | Nicolo FagioliGianluca Scamacca | ||
| 90′ | Alessandro Bastoni |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 65 | Possession % | 35 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 1 | Saves | 7 |
| 669 | Accurate passes | 330 |
France vs Italy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: France vs Italy
| Probability | France | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.6% | 23.6% | 40.8% |
| Market | 65.6% | 20.0% | 14.4% |
| Final | 58.1% | 20.9% | 21.0% |
| Edge | -30.0% | +3.6% | +26.4% |
Why France
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
France and Italy expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
France and Italy attack and defence ratings
France
Italy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
France vs Italy: result vs prediction
France 1 – 1 Italy
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
France vs Italy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | 58.1% | 1.72 | -30.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | 58.1% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Italy | 21.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% |
| No | 29.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | France win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.2% | |
| Loss | 63.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
France vs Italy stats
France vs Italy head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | Italy | France | UEFA Nations League | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-06 | France | Italy | UEFA Nations League | 1-3 |
| 2018-06-01 | France | Italy | Friendlies | 3-1 |
| 2008-06-17 | France | Italy | Euro Championship | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
France vs Italy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.6%, draw 20.0%, away 14.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 5.05 | 6.67 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.75 | 6.70 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 4.95 | 6.75 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 4.62 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .