Türkiye
vs
Italy
1 – 4 Full time
| 9′ | Alessandro Bastoni | ||
| 22′ | Davide Frattesi | ||
| 27′ | Michael Kayode | ||
| 38′ | Can Yilmaz Uzun | ||
| 45′ | Giacomo RaspadoriNicolo Cambiaghi | ||
| 45′ | Merih DemiralAbdulkerim Bardakçı | ||
| 45′ | Can Yilmaz UzunKerem Aktürkoğlu | ||
| 45′ | Orkun KökçüIsmail Yüksek | ||
| 47′ | Baris Alper Yilmaz | ||
| 50′ | Pio Esposito | ||
| 54′ | Baris Alper Yilmaz | ||
| 63′ | Sebastiano EspositoIssa Doumbia | ||
| 72′ | Ozan Kabak | ||
| 75′ | Pio EspositoGianluca Scamacca | ||
| 76′ | Nicolo FagioliAlessandro Romano | ||
| 76′ | Salih ÖzcanDemir Ege Tıknaz | ||
| 80′ | Baris Alper YilmazDeniz Gül | ||
| 82′ | Davide FrattesiGiovanni Di Lorenzo |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 491 | Accurate passes | 423 |
Türkiye vs Italy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Türkiye vs Italy
| Probability | Türkiye | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.1% | 23.4% | 51.5% |
| Market | 35.4% | 27.0% | 37.5% |
| Final | 32.8% | 26.1% | 41.0% |
| Edge | -10.3% | -3.7% | +14.0% |
Why Italy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.39.
- The market prices Italy below the model: +14.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Türkiye and Italy expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.45
Türkiye and Italy attack and defence ratings
Türkiye
Italy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Türkiye vs Italy: result vs prediction
Türkiye 1 – 4 Italy
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Türkiye vs Italy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Italy | 41.0% | 2.44 | +14.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Türkiye | 32.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Italy | 41.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% |
| No | 34.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Italy win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 48.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 6.8% |
Türkiye vs Italy stats
Türkiye vs Italy head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-04 | Italy | Türkiye | Friendlies | 0-0 |
| 2022-03-29 | Türkiye | Italy | Friendlies | 2-3 |
| 2021-06-11 | Türkiye | Italy | Euro Championship | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Türkiye vs Italy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.4%, draw 27.0%, away 37.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.82 | 2.53 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.82 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.57 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.52 | 3.39 | 2.52 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
22 snapshots recorded, from .