Spain
vs
Croatia
4 – 1 Full time
| 2′ | Lamine Yamal | ||
| 18′ | Marin Pongračić | ||
| 28′ | Dion Drena Beljo | ||
| 31′ | Marc Pubill | ||
| 37′ | Petar Sučić | ||
| 45′ | Marin PongračićLuka Vuskovic | ||
| 49′ | Alejandro Baena Rodríguez | ||
| 54′ | Marco Pašalić | ||
| 57′ | Fermín LópezMikel Merino | ||
| 57′ | Fabián RuizPedri | ||
| 58′ | Josip Mišić | ||
| 60′ | Dion Drena BeljoAnte Budimir | ||
| 60′ | Mateo KovačićMario Pašalić | ||
| 63′ | Lamine Yamal | ||
| 68′ | Alejandro Baena RodríguezNico Williams | ||
| 68′ | Lamine YamalVíctor Muñoz | ||
| 72′ | Ivan PerišićFranjo Ivanovic | ||
| 72′ | Martín ZubimendiRodrigo Hernandez Cascante | ||
| 81′ | Petar SučićLuka Modrić | ||
| 89′ | Nico Williams |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 568 | Accurate passes | 296 |
Spain vs Croatia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Spain vs Croatia
| Probability | Spain | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.0% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
| Market | 78.6% | 13.6% | 7.8% |
| Final | 70.5% | 17.0% | 12.6% |
| Edge | -32.7% | +13.4% | +19.2% |
Why Spain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Spain and Croatia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Spain and Croatia attack and defence ratings
Spain
Croatia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Spain vs Croatia: result vs prediction
Spain 4 – 1 Croatia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League A - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Spain vs Croatia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | 70.5% | 1.42 | -32.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | 70.5% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Croatia | 12.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
Spain vs Croatia stats
Spain vs Croatia head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-15 | Spain | Croatia | Euro Championship | 3-0 |
| 2023-06-18 | Croatia | Spain | UEFA Nations League | 0-0 |
| 2021-06-28 | Croatia | Spain | Euro Championship | 3-5 |
| 2018-11-15 | Croatia | Spain | UEFA Nations League | 3-2 |
| 2018-09-11 | Spain | Croatia | UEFA Nations League | 6-0 |
| 2016-06-21 | Croatia | Spain | Euro Championship | 2-1 |
| 2012-06-18 | Croatia | Spain | Euro Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Spain vs Croatia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.6%, draw 13.6%, away 7.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 7.10 | 12.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.26 | 6.80 | 12.00 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.24 | 7.00 | 12.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 7.31 | 12.44 |
| SBO | 1.17 | 5.90 | 9.64 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .