Croatia
vs
England
0 – 7 Full time
| 8′ | Harry Kane | ||
| 21′ | Jude Bellingham | ||
| 39′ | Anthony Gordon | ||
| 45′ | Bukayo Saka | ||
| 45′ | Petar MusaIgor Matanovic | ||
| 45′ | Petar SučićMario Pašalić | ||
| 45′ | Martin BaturinaNikola Vlašić | ||
| 53′ | Harry Kane | ||
| 57′ | Luka ModrićKristijan Jakić | ||
| 68′ | Bukayo Saka | ||
| 68′ | Mateo Kovačić | ||
| 70′ | Anthony GordonEberechi Eze | ||
| 70′ | Alex ScottJames Garner | ||
| 70′ | Harry KaneMorgan Rogers | ||
| 76′ | Josip StanišićJosip Šutalo | ||
| 79′ | Elliot AndersonMorgan Gibbs-White | ||
| 79′ | Lewis HallMyles Lewis-Skelly | ||
| 87′ | Morgan Rogers |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 364 | Accurate passes | 682 |
Croatia vs England overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Croatia vs England
| Probability | Croatia | Draw | England |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.9% | 18.7% | 57.4% |
| Market | 21.5% | 24.0% | 54.4% |
| Final | 22.1% | 22.7% | 55.2% |
| Edge | +2.4% | -5.3% | +2.9% |
Why England
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices England below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Croatia and England expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.55
Croatia and England attack and defence ratings
Croatia
England
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Croatia vs England: result vs prediction
Croatia 0 – 7 England
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League A - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Croatia vs England markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | 55.2% | 1.81 | +2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Croatia | 22.1% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| England | 55.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.8% |
| No | 21.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | England win | 38.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 43.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-3 | 6.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% |
Croatia vs England stats
Croatia vs England head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | England | Croatia | World Cup | 4-2 |
| 2021-06-13 | England | Croatia | Euro Championship | 1-0 |
| 2018-11-18 | England | Croatia | UEFA Nations League | 2-1 |
| 2018-10-12 | Croatia | England | UEFA Nations League | 0-0 |
| 2018-07-11 | Croatia | England | World Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Croatia vs England odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.5%, draw 24.0%, away 54.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.39 | 4.10 | 1.79 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.65 | 3.95 | 1.80 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
| Marathonbet | 4.40 | 4.10 | 1.79 |
| Pinnacle | 4.79 | 3.94 | 1.74 |
| SBO | 4.17 | 3.76 | 1.72 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .