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UEFA Nations League · Full time ·League A - 3

Wales vs Norway

2 – 1 Full time

11′Oscar Bobb
16′Julian RyersonMarcus Pedersen
37′Jordan James
38′Daniel James
45′Fredrik AursnesThelo Aasgaard
46′Torbjørn Heggem
48′Neco Williams
49′Oscar BobbLeo Østigård
75′David Moller WolfeJörgen Strand Larsen
75′Andreas SchjelderupAntonio Nusa
75′Jordan JamesJosh Sheehan
76′Liam CullenJoel Colwill
76′Daniel JamesBrennan Johnson
85′Lewis KoumasMark Harris
90′Martin Odegaard
90′Sorba Thomas
90′Ethan Ampadu

Cardiff City Stadium, CardiffReferee: Alejandro Hernandez

Wales 16%
Draw 19%
Norway 65%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 4
55 Possession % 45
3 Corners 3
11 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 0
3 Saves 4
468 Accurate passes 456

Wales vs Norway overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Wales vs Norway

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWalesDrawNorway
Model19.5%17.5%63.0%
Market14.6%19.8%65.6%
Final15.8%19.2%64.9%
Edge+4.8%-2.3%-2.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Norway

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.67.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Wales ↓ / Norway → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 5% 7% 7% 11% 2 6% 6% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 84%
No goals 1%

Wales and Norway expected goals

Wales 1.67
Norway 2.94

Total expected goals: 4.60

Wales and Norway attack and defence ratings

Wales

Attack 1.38 +38%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Norway

Attack 2.00 +100%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Wales vs Norway: result vs prediction

Wales 2 – 1 Norway

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League A - 3 fixtures

UEFA Nations League

Before and after this match

Wales vs Norway markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Norway 64.9% 1.54 -2.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83.2% 1.20 — —
Both teams to score Yes 76.8% 1.30 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 84.2% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Norway win 44.6% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Wales15.8%
Draw19.2%
Norway64.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583.2%
Under 2.516.8%
Both teams to scoreYes76.8%
No23.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)35.1%
12 (either side)80.8%
X2 (draw or away)84.2%
Handicap -1Norway win44.6%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss36.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-27.3%
1-37.1%
2-26.0%

Wales vs Norway stats

Wales and Norway recent form

newest first
Wales LLDWWL
Norway LWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Wales vs Norway head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Wales vs Norway odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 14.6%, draw 19.8%, away 65.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.70 5.05 1.46
Bet365 6.50 4.75 1.45
BetVictor 6.50 4.80 1.44
Betano 6.70 4.90 1.50
Betfair 6.50 4.75 1.40
Marathonbet 6.70 5.05 1.46
Pinnacle 6.43 4.97 1.46
SBO 6.18 4.60 1.42
William Hill 6.00 4.40 1.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.50 ▲ +3.10
X 4.80 ▲ +1.30
2 1.45 ▼ -0.50

13 snapshots recorded, from .